UPDATE, MORNING OF THE OSCARS: I’ve tweaked a couple of these, because even if I don’t care, I still care, y’know? Adapted Screenplay and Makeup & Hairstyling, if you want to just CTRL+F your way over there.
You’ll have to forgive me: the movie year now breathing its last has been such a deeply, horribly empty wasteland, and even given that, the Academy seemed to go out of its way to pick unusually unsatisfying nominees in pretty much every category. So I don’t really have the stamina to make little comments on all of the categories, particularly the obvious ones.
Best Picture
The Father
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Will win: Nomadland
Should Win: The Father, but I’ll be rooting for Minari as the only film I don’t hate that has any real shot
Should have been here: The French Dispatch, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Dune, West Side Story, a whole lot of possibilities, really
Confidence: 85%
Best Directing
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
David Fincher, Mank
Thomas Vinterberg, Another Round
Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
Will win: Chloé Zhao
Should Win: Of these choices? I dunno, I guess Emerald Fennell
Should have been here: Like, at least one movie that actually had meaningfully interesting directing
Confidence: 90%
Best Actor
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Gary Oldman, Mank
Steven Yeun, Minari
Will win: Chadwick Boseman
Should Win: Anthony Hopkins
Should have been here: Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods, though I would not personally put him in this category
Confidence: 80%
Best Actress
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Will win: Carey Mulligan
Should Win: Viola Davis
Should have been here: Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead
The only truly contested acting race, for what it’s worth, though I think Mulligan has right-place-right-time energy. Confidence: 50%
Best Supporting Actor
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom Jr, One Night in Miami…
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah
Will win: Daniel Kaluuya
Should Win: Stanfield, barely edging Kaluuya, despite both of them being leads
Should have been here: Nothing that would have been on the Academy’s radar. This was an unusually bad year for the category, especially if you consider Delroy Lindo a lead
Confidence: 85%
Best Supporting Actress
Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman, The Father
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Youn Yuh-jung, Minari
Will win: Youn Yuh-jung
Should Win: Amanda Seyfried
Should have been here: Candice Bergen, Let Them All Talk
Confidence: 75%
Best Adapted Screenplay
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (Sacha Baron Cohen, Peter Baynham, Jena Friedman, et al)
The Father (Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller)
Nomadland (Chloé Zhao)
One Night in Miami… (Kemp Powers)
The White Tiger (Ramin Bahrani)
Will win: Nomadland
Should Win: The Father
Should have been here: First Cow (Jon Raymond, Kelly Reichardt)
Confidence: 60% – LOWERED
Best Original Screenplay
Judas and the Black Messiah (Will Berson, Shaka King, Keith Lucas, Kenny Lucas)
Minari (Lee Isaac Chung)
Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell)
Sound of Metal (Abraham Marder, Darius Marder, Derek Cianfrance)
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Aaron Sorkin)
Will win: Promising Young Woman – LAST MINUTE CHANGE
Should Win: Minari
Should have been here: Soul (Pete Docter, Mike Jones, Kemp Powers)
The first category, going down this post, that’s legitimately tough for me to call. There’s decent reason to assume it could be any of Trial, Promising Young Woman, or Minari, with all of the heat on the first two. I’m banking on the notion that two Best Picture nominees going home empty-handed is one too many, but this is one of my most terrifying breaks with conventional wisdom. Confidence: 40%
You know, all the momentum seems on Fennell’s side right now, and while I think it’s odd for Trial to go home empty-handed, I’m just more comfortable this way. Confidence: 40%
Best Cinematography
Judas and the Black Messiah (Sean Bobbitt)
Mank (Erik Messerschmidt)
News of the World (Dariusz Wolski)
Nomadland (Joshua James Richards)
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Phedon Papamichael)
Will win: Nomadland
Should Win: News of the World, by an extraordinarily large margin
Should have been here: It was a weak year for Oscar-friendly movies in this category, but even Promising Young Woman would be a trade-up from most of these
Confidence: 60% – LOWERED
Best Costume Design
Emma. (Alexandra Byrne)
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Ann Roth)
Mank (Trish Summerville)
Mulan (Bina Daigeler)
Pinocchio (Massimo Cantini Parrini)
Will win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Should Win: Emma., but any of these five would be a credible winner – the strongest feature film category of the year by some distance
Should have been here: Tenet (Jeffrey Kurland)
Confidence: 70%
Best Film Editing
The Father (Yorgos Lamprinos)
Nomadland (Chloé Zhao)
Promising Young Woman (Frédéric Thoraval)
Sound of Metal (Mikkel E.G. Nielsen)
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Alan Baumgarten)
Will win: Sound of Metal
Should Win: The Father
Should have been here: Tenet (Jennifer Lame)
The hardest single category to predict, I think – there’s a solid argument to be made for all five, though I wouldn’t have said that about Trial until it won the ACE Eddie. I think there’s enough desire to spread the wealth that Nomadland, the least flashy of the group, is out; the most flashy is probably The Father while you’re watching it, and maybe Sound of Metal when you’re thinking about it later, so those two, I think, are the place to flip your coin. But I’m sore tempted just to stick with Trial and the ACE win. Confidence: 30%
Best Production Design
The Father (Peter Francis, Cathy Featherstone)
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Mark Ricker, Karen O’Hara, Diana Sroughton)
Mank (Donald Graham Burt, Jan Pascale)
News of the World (David Crank, Elizabeth Keenan)
Tenet (Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas)
Will win: Mank
Should Win: Mank
Should have been here: Pinocchio (Dimitri Capuani, Alessia Anfuso)
Confidence: 70%
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Emma. (Laura Allen, Marese Langan, Claudia Stolze)
Hillbilly Elegy (Patricia Dehaney, Eryn Krueger Mekash, Matthew W. Mungle)
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal, Jamika Wilson)
Mank (Colleen LaBaff, Kimberley Spiteri, Gigi Williams)
Pinocchio (Dalia Colli, Mark Coulier, Francesco Pegoretti)
Will win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – LAST MINUTE CHANGE
Should Win: Pinocchio
Should have been here: This was the right five based on the shortlist
Comes down to “making famous people ugly” in Hillbilly Elegy and “incredibly convincing fantasy” in Pinocchio; I really think it’s hard not to see the latter and not be impressed, but “seeing the latter” is exactly the question mark. Confidence: 55%
Apparently Ma Rainey is universally considered a lock for the win? I can’t say I understand why at all, but it makes me nervous enough to switch. Confidence: 15%
Best Music, Original Score
Da 5 Bloods (Terence Blanchard)
Mank (Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross)
Minari (Emile Mosseri)
News of the World (James Newton Howard)
Soul (Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, Jon Batiste)
Will win: Soul
Should Win: Soul
Should have been here: Tenet (Ludwig Göransson)
Confidence: 90%
Best Music, Original Song
From Eurovision: The Story of Fire Saga: “Húsavik” ( Rickard Göransson, Fat Max Gsus, Savan Kotecha
From Judas and the Black Messiah: “Fight for You” (D’Mile, H.E.R., Tiara Thomas)
From The Life Ahead: “Io sì (Seen)” (Diane Warren, Laura Pausini)
From One Night in Miami…: “Speak Now” (Sam Ashworth, Leslie Odom Jr.)
From The Trial of the Chicago 7: “Hear My Voice” (Daniel Pemberton, Celeste)
Will win: “Io sì (Seen)”
Should Win: “Húsavik”, which is genuiunely lovely and also plays prior to the end credits scroll
Should have been here: A moment of silence for the end of original movie musicals, a robust genre from the classical studio era that was the only justification for this archaic dinosaur of a category
Pure guesswork, but in the absence of any songs that matter on any level, surely the “just give Diane a goddamn Oscar already” vote can take it, on try number 12? Confidence: 20%
Best Sound
Greyhound (Beau Borders, Michael Minkler, Warren Shaw, David Wyman)
Mank (Ren Klyce, Drew Kunin, Jeremy Molod, Nathan Nance, David Parker)
News of the World (William Miller, John Pritchett, Mike Prestwood Smith, Oliver Tarney)
Soul (Coya Elliot, Ren Klyce, David Parker)
Sound of Metal (Jaime Baksht, Nicolas Becker, Philip Bladh, Carlos Cortés, Michelle Couttolenc)
Will win: Sound of Metal
Should Win: Soul
Should have been here: Two separate categories, reflecting the fact that sound editing and sound mixing are different jobs performed by different people with different skill sets, but I guess I’ll just have to live with them being folded into each other for the rest of time
Confidence: 90%
Best Visual Effects
Love and Monsters (Genevieve Camailleri, Brian Cox, Matt Everitt, Matt Sloan)
The Midnight Sky (Matthew Kasmir, Chris Lawrence, Max Solomon, David Watkins)
Mulan (Sean Andrew Faden, Steve Ingram, Anders Langlands, Seth Maury)
The One and Only Ivan (Nick Davis, Greg Fisher, Ben Jones, Santiago Colomo Martinez)
Tenet (Scott R. Fisher, Andrew Jackson, David Lee, Andrew Lockley)
Will win: Tenet
Should Win: Tenet
Should have been here: Soul, though I have also heard exemplary things about Welcome to Chechnya, which I haven’t seen and almost certainly will not in the future
Confidence: 75%
International Feature Film
Another Round (Denmark)
Better Days (Hong Kong)
Collective (Romania)
The Man Who Sold His Skin (Tunisia)
Quo vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)
Will Win: Another Round
Should Win: Quo vadis, Aida?
Confidence: 80%
Best Documentary Feature
Collective
Crip Camp
The Mole Agent
My Octopus Teacher
Time
Will Win: My Octopus Teacher
Should Win: Collective
Confidence: 70%
Best Documentary, Short Subject
Colette
A Concerto Is a Conversation
Do Not Split
Hunger Ward
A Love Song for Latasha
Will Win: A Concerto Is a Conversation
Should Win: Do Not Split
Confidence: 50%
Best Animated Feature
Onward
Over the Moon
A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
Soul
Wolfwalkers
Will Win: Soul
Should Win: Wolfwalkers
Should Have Been Here: Ride Your Wave
Confidence: 95%
Best Animated Short Film
Burrow
Genius Loci
If Anything Happens I Love You
Opera
Yes-People
Will Win: If Anything Happens I Love You
Should Win: Genius Loci
The film I’m predicting is by no means my favorite, but outside of Yes-People this is a rock-solid list – the strongest overall category. Confidence: 60%
Best Live Action Short Film
Feeling Through
The Letter Room
The Present
Two Distant Strangers
White Eye
Will Win: Two Distant Strangers
Should Win: White Eye
Confidence: 60%