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Tim’s Predictions | Rob’s Predictions | Carrie’s Predictions
BEST PICTURE
1917
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time …in Hollywood
Parasite
Will win: 1917
Should win: Once Upon a Time …in Hollywood
Should have been here: A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
This category has been skewing more and more towards nice character stories in recent years, and away from impressive feats, which might almost convince me to go doubt that 1917 can continue its juggernaut run through the industry awards, if any of the obvious first-runners-up were nice character stories. What seals it for me is that Rob has it as his “should win”, and he has the most Oscar-like tastes of anyone on this website. I’m not feeling the efforts to suggest that it’s neck-and-neck with Parasite; last year, Roma lost against much less daunting competition, which tells me that no subtitled movie will win anytime soon, as long as it has its own segregated award to take home. Confidence level: 85%
BEST DIRECTING
Bong Joon-ho, Parasite
Sam Mendes, 1917
Todd Phillips, Joker
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time …in Hollywood
Will win: Sam Mendes
Should win: Bong Joon-ho
Should have been here: Céline Sciamma, Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Tarantino and Scorsese’s films have faded much faster than I would have ever expected, and while I think the coolness factor of giving this award to Bong will sway some voters, the Best Picture frontrunner is also the “most”-directed movie of the year. I don’t think it’s quite as locked-and-loaded as Best Picture, but it’s close. Confidence Level: 80%
BEST ACTOR
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time …in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
Will win: Joaquin Phoenix
Should win: Antonio Banderas
Should have been here: Paul Walter Hauser, Richard Jewell
In which the Joker is about to join Don Vito Corleone as the only character to win acting Oscars for two different performers. Confidence level: 90%
BEST ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renée Zellweger, Judy
Will win: Renée Zellweger
Should win: Cynthia Erivo
Should have been here: Lupita Nyong’o, Us
I’m never entirely thrilled to simply co-sign all of the SAG winners, and this seems to be the weakest: it’s the only one that isn’t also a career achievement award. And it’s not like anybody seems especially excited by Zellweger’s performance. But I can see roughly equal arguments in favor of the other four, and I will assume that the short calendar means that voters will be lazy. Confidence level: 80%
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time …in Hollywood
Will win: Brad Pitt
Should win: Brad Pitt
Should have been here: Song Kang-ho, Parasite
Only one of these men has never won an acting Oscar, he’s Hollywood royalty, and it’s the surest place to reward a Best Picture nominee that otherwise doesn’t have any clear-cut slam dunk wins. Plus, it’s category fraud, and we know how they love to reward that. Confidence level: 90%
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Will win: Laura Dern
Should win: Kathy Bates
Should have been here: Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
The fact that there’s such an obvious “hip” choice in Pugh gives me at least a moment of pause, but I think everybody will be so grateful for the chance to make this up to such an ever-reliable workhorse like Dern that it won’t ultimately matter. Confidence level: 85%
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Irishman (Steven Zaillian)
Jojo Rabbit (Taika Waititi)
Joker (Todd Phillips, Scott Silver)
Little Women (Greta Gerwig)
The Two Popes (Anthony McCarten)
Will win: Jojo Rabbit
Should win: The Irishman
Should have been here: A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Noah Harpster, Micah Fitzerman-Blue)
It’s the best way to throw a “big” award to three Best Picture nominees, and I think that Jojo Rabbit, for whatever reason, has a bit more urgency behind it than the other two. Also, it’s pretty clear at this point that if somebody finds any fault with Little Women, it’s most likely because of chronological structure – which is to say, the adaptation. I don’t think that would hurt a film with a little bit more steam in its engines, but they obviously didn’t love the movie. Confidence level: 60%
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1917 (Sam Mendes, Krysty Wilson-Cairns)
Knives Out (Rian Johnson)
Marriage Story (Noah Baumbach)
Once Upon a Time …in Hollywood (Quentin Tarantino)
Parasite (Bong Joon-ho, Han Jin-wan)
Will win: Parasite
Should win: Once Upon a Time …in Hollywood
Should have been here: The Farewell (Lulu Wang)
Tarantino has won this award twice, and if you love Parasite but don’t want to give it both Picture and International Film, this is clearly the place you mark it down. 1917 wins here only as part of a huge sweep, I suspect, but one should never count out a presumptive Best Picture winner in a screenplay category. Confidence level: 75%
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1917 (Roger Deakins)
The Irishman (Rodrigo Prieto)
Joker (Lawrence Sher)
The Lighthouse (Jarin Blaschke)
Once Upon a Time …in Hollywood (Robert Richardson)
Will win: 1917
Should win: The Lighthouse
Should have been here: Portrait of a Lady on Fire (Claire Mathon)
I am extremely excited for Roger Deakins to enter the Emmanuel Lubezki phase of his career, where the Academy is all “we’re so sorry it took us so long to finally give you that first Oscar, here are a couple more to make up for it”. Confidence level: 100%
BEST EDITING
Ford v Ferrari (Andrew Buckland, Michael McCusker, Dirk Westervelt)
The Irishman (Thelma Schoonmaker)
Jojo Rabbit (Tom Eagles)
Joker (Jeff Groth)
Parasite (Yang Jin-mo)
Will win: Ford v Ferrari
Should win: Parasite
Ford v Ferrari has the “most” editing, but Joker isn’t all that far behind, and both Parasite andJojo Rabbit took ACE awards. I think that’s the order I’d rank the four of them in, but a win for any wouldn’t come as a surprise – I’m even tempted to call this the most open category of the night. Confidence level: 30%
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
The Irishman (Sandy Powell, Christopher Peterson)
Jojo Rabbit (Mayes C. Rubeo)
Joker (Mark Bridges)
Little Women (Jacqueline Durran)
Once Upon a Time …in Hollywood (Arianne Phillips)
Will win: Little Women
Should win: Jojo Rabbit
Should have been here: Dolemite Is My Name (Ruth E. Carter)
Never count out the Academy’s love for 19th Century period pieces in this category, and they don’t have another option besides Little Women. Which, anyway, they have to award somewhere. The very different period-authentic work in …Hollywood feels like it might scratch some nostalgic itches, but this category has historically been very reluctant to give awards to movies with people wearing street clothes, no matter how thoughtfully-chosen or psychologically illustrative. Confidence level: 75%
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1917 (Dennis Gassner; Lee Sandales)
The Irishman (Bob Shaw; Regina Graves)
Jojo Rabbit (Rob Vincent; Nora Sopková)
Once Upon a Time …in Hollywood (Barbara Ling; Nancy Haigh)
Parasite (Lee Ha-jun; Cho Won-woo)
Will win: Once Upon a Time …in Hollywood
Should win: Parasite
Should have been here: Ad Astra (Kevin Thompson; Karen O’Hara)
Awfully close to being a pure coin-flip. On the one hand: a gorgeous, candy-colored celebration of the city that the film industry calls home; on the other, a film whose two main sets are, kind of, the entire point of the whole thing. 1917 winning wouldn’t completely shock me, but it’s clearly a ways behind Parasite and …Hollywood. Confidence level: 50%
BEST HAIR & MAKEUP
1917
Bombshell
Joker
Judy
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
Will win: Bombshell
Should win: Judy
Should have been here: Rocketman
“She looks just like Megyn Kelly!” Yes, but she looks like Gretchen Carlson was replaced with a mannequin brought to live by eldritch magicks. But that hasn’t stopped this category before. Confidence level: 90%
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1917 (Thomas Newman)
Joker (Hildur Guðnadóttir)
Little Women (Alexandre Desplat)
Marriage Story (Randy Newman)
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (John Williams)
Will win: Joker
Should win: 1917
Should have been here: Pain and Glory (Alberto Iglesias)
Eventually, I just plain gave up trying to pick between Joker and 1917. In favor of the former: it’s hard to get one’s first nomination in this most insular, clubby of categories, but those rare first-timers also tend to win disproportionately often (also, it’s a really good score). In favor of the latter: Newman hasn’t been this close to winning since American Beauty, 20 years ago and surely they know that’s ridiculous, and it’s the Best Picture frontrunner (also, it’s a really good score). Another coin-flip, though this time I used a weighted coin. Confidence level: 50%
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
From Breakthrough: “I’m Standing with You”
From Frozen II: “Into the Unknown”
From Harriet: “Stand Up”
From Rocketman: “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again”
From Toy Story 4: “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away”
Will win: Rocketman: “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again”
Should win: Frozen II: “Into the Unknown”
Should have been here: The Academy Award for Best Stunt Ensemble
Who giiives a shiiiiiiiiiit
BEST SOUND EDITING
1917
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
Once Upon a Time …in Hollywood
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Will win: 1917
Should win: Ford v Ferrari
Should have been here: Ad Astra
BEST SOUND MIXING
1917
Ad Astra
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
Once Upon a Time …in Hollywood
Will win: 1917
Should win: Ad Astra
Should have been here: Rocketman
So, I’m cheating with the sound categories. I actually think that 1917 and Ford v Ferrari are going to split them, but to save my soul I can’t decide which one takes which. I’ve therefore strategically picked the war movie that’s a Best Picture frontrunner for both, to cover my bases. But know that I’ve basically sacrificed a category here. Confidence level (that it will be some combination of these two films): 95%. Confidence level (that it will be exactly what I’ve put down here): 35%
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1917
Avengers: Endgame
The Irishman
The Lion King
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Will win: The Lion King
Should win: The Lion King
Should have been here: Alita: Battle Angel
Hey, remember how Ad Astra, the film with the best visual effects of the year, didn’t even make the 20-film longlist? Haha, good times. Anyway, I can see the argument that the highest-grossing film of all time (that’d be Endgame) can’t possibly walk away without the award that’s sort of custom-made for artless popcorn movies, but also, The Lion King just, like… looks more real. Confidence level: 60%
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Corpus Christi (Poland)
Honeyland (North Macedonia)
Les Misérables (France)
Pain and Glory (Spain)
Parasite (South Korea)
Will win: Parasite
Should win: Parasite
Should have been here: Atlantics (Senegal)
All five films nominated simultaneously in both this category and Best Picture have won this category, and this sure as hell isn’t going to be the one to break that streak. Confidence level: 100%
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body
Klaus
Missing Link
Toy Story 4
Will win: Toy Story 4
Should win: How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
Should have been here: Weathering with You
I hear the argument that this is their best chance ever to not give this award to Pixar, but at no point in its history has this category ever failed to be completely lazy. The distributor has been pushing Missing Link extremely hard, to be sure, but the “Laika has never won!” narrative seems to have entirely failed to materialise. Confidence level: 80%
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
American Factory
The Cave
The Edge of Democracy
For Sama
Honeyland
Will win: For Sama
Should win: Honeyland
Should have been here: Apollo 11
I can absolutely see where the Obamas’ imprimatur might help push American Factory over the edge, but they have to award one of these Syria docs eventually, and For Sama has the benefit of an extremely obvious emotional hook. Confidence level: 60%
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
In the Absence
Life Overtakes Me
Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)
St. Louis Superman
Walk Run Cha-Cha
Will win: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)
Should win: In the Absence
Previously: St. Louis Superman is the only nominated film in any category that I haven’t seen, and unfortunately, it also seems like one of the likeliest titles, based on its logline, to win. That being said, Learning to Skateboard checks off basically all of the boxes that I know this category to have (it’s about children, it’s set in a very serious and grim context, but it’s basically heartfelt and uplifting, it’s socially progressive, it’s longer than it needs to be), and it’s the consensus pick to win. I have been doing poorly on this category in recent years, though. Confidence level: 50%
Having now seen all nominated films, I don’t think St. Louis Superman is apt to be much of a factor. My above logic in support of Learning to Skateboard remains secure. Confidence: 70%
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Dcera (Daughter)
Hair Love
Kitbull
Mémorable
Sister
Will win: Hair Love
Should win: Hair Love
I’ve been doing even worse here – my record for the last few years has been exactly as good as random chance. I’ve been waffling between Hair Love and Mémorable: the former is extremely nice and lets voters feel like they’re doing good work for society, the latter is a reasonably funny take on extremely harrowing material that speaks to exactly where the aging and/or already extremely old voting base of the Academy lives. So it will probably be Sister. Confidence level: 20%
BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
Brotherhood
The Neighbors’ Window
Nefta Football Club
Saria
A Sister
Will win: Brotherhood
Should win: Nefta Football Club
Brotherhood and Saria are the two that have the most Important Things to Say, and the former is simply better as a piece of storytelling and filmmaking. Nefta Football Club is the charming comedy about children that has enough gravity in the setting that it still feels like there might be a serious message hiding in there; I think it’s between that one and Brotherhood. Though A Sister is surely the most interesting of the lot, and The Neighbors’ Window is the only one in English, which sometimes helps (it’s also, by far, the worst nominee). Confidence level: 50%
* * * * *
BEST PICTURE
1917
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time …in Hollywood
Parasite
Will win: 1917
Should win: 1917
All signs are pointing to the faux single shot war epic taking home gold. The only film who I think might be as deserving would be Parasite, but it would be hard to see this happening with International Features having their own category.
BEST DIRECTING
Bong Joon-ho, Parasite
Sam Mendes, 1917
Todd Phillips, Joker
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time …in Hollywood
Will win: Sam Mendes
Should win: Bong Joon-ho
Should have been here: Lorene Scafaria, Hustlers; Greta Gerwig, Little Women
The nominees barely feature any diversity. While I’m not suggesting to add diversity, for diversities sake, both Hustler (Lorene Scafaria) and Gerwig are worthy additions. Scafaria directed my favorite Scorsese film of the last few years and how can we praise Little Women as a Best Picture, without giving Gerwig a nod.
BEST ACTOR
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time …in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
Will win: Joaquin Phoenix
Should win: Joaquin Phoenix
Not the lock with the largest margin, but pretty much a sure thing. No other performance of the year came close, although I have yet to see Adam Sandler in Uncut Gems and it sounds like Sandler could have given Joaquin a run for his money.
BEST ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renée Zellweger, Judy
Will win: Renée Zellweger
Should win: Renée Zellweger
The Academy tends to reward biopics for acting categories… particularly when you sing, dance and act your ass off. That’s just what Zellweger did and she’s deserving of claiming her second Oscar after Cold Mountain in 2004. Funny enough, Zellweger had a stretch of 3-years being nominated or winning between 2002 – 2004.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time …in Hollywood
Will win: Brad Pitt
Should win: Brad Pitt
Absolutely deserving of the award given the other performances in this category. That being said, this feels more like a lifetime achievement award and I’m totally fine with that. Especially given all the great acceptance speeches he’s been giving as he makes the rounds picking up award after award.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Will win: Laura Dern
Should win: Laura Dern
Should have been here: Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
I continue to be completely baffled by this one. Jennifer Lopez not only deserved to be nominated, she owned this category. Not to take away from the stellar performance Dern brings, but Lopez was magnetic on-screen. And how about that dance number???
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Irishman (Steven Zaillian)
Jojo Rabbit (Taika Waititi)
Joker (Todd Phillips, Scott Silver)
Little Women (Greta Gerwig)
The Two Popes (Anthony McCarten)
Will win: Little Women
Should win: Jojo Rabbit
Not taking anything away from Gerwig, but I feel like this will serve as some consolation prize to her. While she does a fabulous job switching around the familiar narrative, the originality of Waititi’s Jojo Rabbit feel like the most deserving.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1917 (Sam Mendes, Krysty Wilson-Cairns)
Knives Out (Rian Johnson)
Marriage Story (Noah Baumbach)
Once Upon a Time …in Hollywood (Quentin Tarantino)
Parasite (Bong Joon-ho, Han Jin-wan)
Will win: Once Upon a Time …in Hollywood
Should win: Parasite
Hollywood will once again pat itself on the back and bask in the warm glow of tinsel town nostalgia. Rightfully so… it’s a pretty awesome story, but Bong Joon Ho’s Parasite has twists, turns, humor, drama, horror and a strong class message.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1917 (Roger Deakins)
The Irishman (Rodrigo Prieto)
Joker (Lawrence Sher)
The Lighthouse (Jarin Blaschke)
Once Upon a Time …in Hollywood (Robert Richardson)
Will win: 1917
Should win: 1917
BEST EDITING
Ford v Ferrari (Andrew Buckland, Michael McCusker, Dirk Westervelt)
The Irishman (Thelma Schoonmaker)
Jojo Rabbit (Tom Eagles)
Joker (Jeff Groth)
Parasite (Yang Jin-mo)
Will win: Ford v Ferrari
Should win: Ford v Ferrari
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
The Irishman (Sandy Powell, Christopher Peterson)
Jojo Rabbit (Mayes C. Rubeo)
Joker (Mark Bridges)
Little Women (Jacqueline Durran)
Once Upon a Time …in Hollywood (Arianne Phillips)
Will win: Little Women
Should win: Little Women
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1917 (Dennis Gassner; Lee Sandales)
The Irishman (Bob Shaw; Regina Graves)
Jojo Rabbit (Rob Vincent; Nora Sopková)
Once Upon a Time …in Hollywood (Barbara Ling; Nancy Haigh)
Parasite (Lee Ha-jun; Cho Won-woo)
Will win: Once Upon a Time …in Hollywood
Should win: Once Upon a Time …in Hollywood
BEST HAIR & MAKEUP
1917
Bombshell
Joker
Judy
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
Will win: Bombshell
Should win: Bombshell
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1917 (Thomas Newman)
Joker (Hildur Guðnadóttir)
Little Women (Alexandre Desplat)
Marriage Story (Randy Newman)
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (John Williams)
Will win: Joker
Should win: Joker
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
From Breakthrough: “I’m Standing with You”
From Frozen II: “Into the Unknown”
From Harriet: “Stand Up”
From Rocketman: “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again”
From Toy Story 4: “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away”
Will win: Harriet: “Stand Up”
Should win: Harriet: “Stand Up”
BEST SOUND EDITING
1917
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
Once Upon a Time …in Hollywood
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Will win: 1917
Should win: Ford v Ferrari
BEST SOUND MIXING
Ad Astra
1917
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
Once Upon a Time …in Hollywood
Will win: 1917
Should win: Ford v Ferrari
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1917
Avengers: Endgame
The Irishman
The Lion King
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Will win: Avengers: Endgame
Should win: Avengers: Endgame
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Corpus Christi (Poland)
Honeyland (North Macedonia)
Les Misérables (France)
Pain and Glory (Spain)
Parasite (South Korea)
Will win: Parasite
Should win: Parasite
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body
Klaus
Missing Link
Toy Story 4
Will win: Missing Link
Should win: Missing Link
Some pundits have Toy Story 4 winning out, but with Missing Link having claimed the Golden Globe, I think the Academy might be a little tired of sequels.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
American Factory
The Cave
The Edge of Democracy
For Sama
Honeyland
Will win: American Factory
Should win: Honeyland
I haven’t seen American Factory, but I’ve heard it is amazing. It will have to be to take out Honeyland, which I thought was incredible.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
In the Absence
Life Overtakes Me
Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)
St. Louis Superman
Walk Run Cha-Cha
Will win: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)
Haven’t seen a single one of these, but the title feels like something that the Academy has rewarded in the past.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Dcera (Daughter)
Hair Love
Kitbull
Mémorable
Sister
Will win: Hair Love
BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
Brotherhood
The Neighbors’ Window
Nefta Football Club
Saria
A Sister
Will win: Brotherhood
* * * * *
BEST PICTURE
1917
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time …in Hollywood
Parasite
Will win: 1917
Should win: Parasite
Should have been here: The Farewell; A Hidden Life; Jexi
Honestly, this has been such a weird transformative year for me in cinema. I liked a Terrence Malick film, a whole bunch and I was able to “overcome the one-inch tall barrier of subtitles”… despite living in a weird, sad world, that the Academy won’t be able to.
(I did give Once Upon a Time …in Hollywood an extra star because of Brad Pit’s whole body and the live-action Lion King made me cry, so I guess I’m still me.)
BEST DIRECTING
Bong Joon-ho, Parasite
Sam Mendes, 1917
Todd Phillips, Joker
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time …in Hollywood
Will win: Bong Joon-ho
Should win: Bong Joon-ho
Should have been here: Terrence Malick, A Hidden Life; Greta Gerwig, Little Women
I’m all good with every single nominated director.
I remember Tim talking years ago, about some movie that he loved because of the way “the wheat blew in the wind,” which I obviously mocked at the time. After A Hidden Life, I get it.
BEST ACTOR
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time …in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
Will win: Joaquin Phoenix
Should win: Joaquin Phoenix
It’s a close tie with Leo, but the truth is, I will forever be haunted by Joaquin’s painful-cackle.
BEST ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renée Zellweger, Judy
Will win: Renée Zellweger
Should win: Saoirse Ronan
I loved all of these performances so much, but at the end of the day, Renée Zellweger’s portrayal of Judy Garland is going to give the academy that special feeling, when you find out that the restaurant you’re eating at, has those fancy chocolate after-dinner mints.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time …in Hollywood
Will win: Brad Pitt
Should win: Tom Hanks
I know what I’ve said, and I don’t really care that you’re judging me (I kid, I actually care a lot).
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Will win: Laura Dern
Should win: Florence Pugh
I contemplated having Laura Dern and Scarlett Johansson as a tie, but that would leave you hanging…
(Poor taste?)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Irishman (Steven Zaillian)
Jojo Rabbit (Taika Waititi)
Joker (Todd Phillips, Scott Silver)
Little Women (Greta Gerwig)
The Two Popes (Anthony McCarten)
Will win: Jojo Rabbit
Should win: Jojo Rabbit
Even though I think Jojo is the right call, there’s this nagging feeling that this might be the “I’m Sorry Greta” category for the miss on Best Director. I’ll be ok either way.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1917 (Sam Mendes, Krysty Wilson-Cairns)
Knives Out (Rian Johnson)
Marriage Story (Noah Baumbach)
Once Upon a Time …in Hollywood (Quentin Tarantino)
Parasite (Bong Joon-ho, Han Jin-wan)
Will win: 1917
Should win: Parasite
Gawd, I don’t even know… all of these are such good choices.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1917 (Roger Deakins)
The Irishman (Rodrigo Prieto)
Joker (Lawrence Sher)
The Lighthouse (Jarin Blaschke)
Once Upon a Time …in Hollywood (Robert Richardson)
Will win: 1917
Should win: 1917
De-Aging CGI, Single-Take or Mermaid Coitus. It’s so hard.
BEST EDITING
Ford v Ferrari (Andrew Buckland, Michael McCusker, Dirk Westervelt)
The Irishman (Thelma Schoonmaker)
Jojo Rabbit (Tom Eagles)
Joker (Jeff Groth)
Parasite (Yang Jin-mo)
Will win: Ford v Ferrari
Should win: Parasite
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
The Irishman (Sandy Powell, Christopher Peterson)
Jojo Rabbit (Mayes C. Rubeo)
Joker (Mark Bridges)
Little Women (Jacqueline Durran)
Once Upon a Time …in Hollywood (Arianne Phillips)
Will win: Little Women
Should win: Jojo Rabbit
Those shoes, tho.
(Still poor taste?)
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1917 (Dennis Gassner; Lee Sandales)
The Irishman (Bob Shaw; Regina Graves)
Jojo Rabbit (Rob Vincent; Nora Sopková)
Once Upon a Time …in Hollywood (Barbara Ling; Nancy Haigh)
Parasite (Lee Ha-jun; Cho Won-woo)
Will win: Once Upon a Time …in Hollywood
Should win: Once Upon a Time …in Hollywood
I’ve never been to LA, because I have lots of wrinkles and a Mom-bod that would probably have people throwing loose change at me, BUT if I’ve ever felt like I was totally immersed in the feeling of fancy-Cali, this was it!
BEST HAIR & MAKEUP
1917
Bombshell
Joker
Judy
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
Will win: Bombshell
Should win: Bombshell
The only movie on the whole circuit that had me googling “how did they make Charlize look like Satan?”
(FYI – there are YouTube videos that clarify)
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1917 (Thomas Newman)
Joker (Hildur Guðnadóttir)
Little Women (Alexandre Desplat)
Marriage Story (Randy Newman)
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (John Williams)
Will win: 1917
Should win: Marriage Story
Every movie about the pain and agony of divorce should have such a beautifully melancholic musical throughline (that sounded very “Tim” but it’s how my heart feels).
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
From Breakthrough: “I’m Standing with You”
From Frozen II: “Into the Unknown”
From Harriet: “Stand Up”
From Rocketman: “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again”
From Toy Story 4: “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away”
Will win: Toy Story 4: “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away”
Should win: Rocketman: “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again”
The will/should might be flipped, but I’m going to put my $5 on Mr. Newman and his perpetual heart-string-tugging.
BEST SOUND EDITING
1917
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
Once Upon a Time …in Hollywood
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Will win: 1917
Should win: 1917
I was CERTAIN that flaming fighter jet was going to run straight into my face.
BEST SOUND MIXING
Ad Astra
1917
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
Once Upon a Time …in Hollywood
Will win: Ad Astra
Should win: 1917
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1917
Avengers: Endgame
The Irishman
The Lion King
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Will win: The Irishman
Should win: The Lion King
(I sort of kid, but not really, I loved it)
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Corpus Christi (Poland)
Honeyland (North Macedonia)
Les Misérables (France)
Pain and Glory (Spain)
Parasite (South Korea)
Will win: Parasite
Should win: Parasite
FINALLY! 100% confident in my answer.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body
Klaus
Missing Link
Toy Story 4
Will win: How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
Should win: How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
This one pains me. But Tim thought it was a masterpiece…and winning is more important that my integrity.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
American Factory
The Cave
The Edge of Democracy
For Sama
Honeyland
Will win: Honeyland
Should win: Honeyland
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
In the Absence
Life Overtakes Me
Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)
St. Louis Superman
Walk Run Cha-Cha
Will win: In the Absence
Should win: In the Absence
…of having an idea what to pick.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Dcera (Daughter)
Hair Love
Kitbull
Mémorable
Sister
Will win: Mémorable
Should win: Mémorable
BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
Brotherhood
The Neighbors’ Window
Nefta Football Club
Saria
A Sister
Will win: Brotherhood
Should win: Brotherhood
If it’s like Boyhood only shorter, I think it’s full of promise.