I’m in a state of perpetual, complete mental exhaustion – you have perhaps noticed the “once a fortnight” review-posting schedule – but not so much that I couldn’t participate in the most ridiculous of all film nerd rituals: predicting what will win Oscars on Sunday, 12 March. This is, across the board, the hardest year to predict that I can remember, with three of the four acting categories feeling almost impossible to actually predict – a remarkably high number (only three categories feel obviously “locked” to me: Supporting Actor, International Film, and Visual Effects. Picture might feel more locked if All Quiet on the Western Front hadn’t gone berserk at the BAFTAS, winning seven awards on 14 nominations, and Director might feel more locked if Picture felt more locked). Not least because the easy thing to do would be to declare an Everything Everywhere All at Once sweep; but even now as we’re living through it, my brain refuses to process that EEAAO is even remotely an Oscar-friendly movie. Still, I think it’s right in the mix for seven awards (Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Editing), and I don’t see how it drops below four. The trick is that it’s easier for me to say “it will win either five or six awards” as a broad statement than to pin down which five or six, on a category-by-category basis.
BEST PICTURE
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
TÁR
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking
Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once (confidence: 90%)
My Vote: The Fabelmans
Should Have Been Here: Babylon
Trying not to overthink this one, but: the individual that I know personally whose tastes are by far the most in-line with the Academy – Rob Jarosinski, late of this here very site – is not a fan of Everything Everywhere, and would vote for Maverick if he had a vote. And that really does throw me off my stride a bit. And I think the lingering question of what the hell that full-on sweep at the BAFTAS that All Quiet enjoyed might mean won’t be resolved until the Oscars ceremony is over – I think it has a cap of six awards on a best-case scenario night, just as much as I can see EEAAO taking seven (though it would obviously be a bigger surprise). Still, any other prediction than EEAAO takes us firmly into No Guts, No Glory territory, and I have absolutely no guts.
*****
BEST DIRECTOR
Todd Field, TÁR
Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Will Win: Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert (confidence: 90%)
My Vote: Steven Spielberg
Should Have Been Here: James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water
*****
BEST ACTOR
Austin Butler, Elvis
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Bill Nighy, Living
Will Win: Brendan Fraser (confidence: 51%)
My Vote: Bill Nighy
Should Have Been Here: Diego Calva, Babylon
Almost a coinflip between Fraser and Butler, except that I think SAG counts for more than BAFTA – barely.
*****
BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, TÁR
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Will Win: Michelle Yeoh (confidence: 40%)
My Vote: Cate Blanchett
Should Have Been Here: Mia Goth, Pearl
This gets us into “I’d rather overpredict Everything Everywhere and be reasonably wrong than underpredict it and be foolishly wrong” territory – my instinct is still to say that Blanchett is just too dominant to lose, but also the wind feels like it’s really in Yeoh’s sails. Either one would be an excellent choice, to be sure. Part of me also just wants to see Riseborough take it, since that would be by some considerable margin the funniest thing that could possibly happen on Sunday night (Ana de Armas would be even funnier, but that can’t possibly happen).
*****
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Will Win: Ke Huy Quan (confidence: 95%)
My Vote: Brendan Gleeson
Should Have Been Here: Tom Hanks, Elvis
*****
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau, The Whale
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Will Win: Angela Bassett (confidence: 25%)
My Vote: Kerry Condon
Should Have Been Here: Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
The hardest category of the night to predict. My only actual prediction is “not Chau”, and I think Curtis has a distinct edge over Hsu. There is at least a chance I am letting my extreme dislike of Curtis’s performance – I’ve only ever liked her less in Halloween: Resurrection – affect my judgment too much, and she actually has this mostly sewn up.
*****
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
All Quiet on the Western Front (Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson, and Ian Stokell)
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Rian Johnson)
Living (Kazuo Ishiguro)
Top Gun: Maverick (Screenplay by Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, and Christopher McQuarrie; Story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks)
Women Talking (Sarah Polley)
Will Win: Women Talking (confidence: 70%)
My Vote: Living
Should Have Been Here: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Using “optics” to predict what will win Oscars is a sucker’s bet, but you already hear the thinkpieces that would come out if Polley loses. And I think that creates a lot of pressure to vote for Women Talking, even if they very obviously think that All Quiet on the Western Front is the better film.
*****
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Banshees of Inisherin (Martin McDonagh)
Everything Everywhere All at Once (Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert)
The Fabelmans (Steven Spielberg & Tony Kushner)
TÁR (Todd Field)
Triangle of Sadness (Ruben Östlund)
Will Win: The Banshees of Inisherin (confidence: 50%)
My Vote: The Banshees of Inisherin
Should Have Been Here: Armageddon Time
The smart money is definitely on Everything Everywhere, but I just don’t see how Banshees can possibly walk away with nothing at all, and I like its chances here better than in Supporting Actress.
*****
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
All Quiet on the Western Front (James Friend)
Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Darius Khondji)
Elvis (Mandy Walker)
Empire of Light (Roger Deakins)
TÁR (Florian Hoffmeister)
Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front (confidence: 60%)
My Vote: Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
Should Have Been Here: The Fabelmans
I don’t like my prediction here; it’s more that I don’t think any of the others can win, than that I think All Quiet will. The people running the Elvis Oscar campaign at Warner’s dropped the ball in a huge way but not putting “Vote for the First Woman to Win Best Cinematography!” on every available billboard in Los Angeles.
*****
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Babylon (Mary Zophres)
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Ruth E. Carter)
Elvis (Catherine Martin)
Everything Everywhere All at Once (Shirley Kurata)
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (Jenny Beavan)
Will Win: Elvis (confidence: 80%)
My Vote: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Should Have Been Here: The Woman King
*****
BEST EDITING
The Banshees of Inisherin (Mikkel E.G. Nielsen)
Elvis (Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond)
Everything Everywhere All at Once (Paul Rogers)
TÁR (Monika Willi)
Top Gun: Maverick (Eddie Hamilton)
Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once (confidence: 50%)
My Vote: Elvis
Should Have Been Here: Babylon
This one is extremely tough for me: if you back into things via “how many awards will Everything Everywhere win? Probably six”, which is the number I think makes the most sense (note that I am actually only predicting that it will get five), this has to be one of those six. If you approach it forwards, from “what kind of editing wins the Oscar?” it is clearly Maverick. Since I think winning only four would be awfully low for EEAAO, I HAVE to give it one of Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, or this, and this feels the most “expendable”.
*****
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
All Quiet on the Western Front (Production Design: Christian M. Goldbeck; Set Decoration: Ernestine Hipper)
Avatar: The Way of Water (Production Design: Dylan Cole and Ben Procter; Set Decoration: Vanessa Cole)
Babylon (Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino)
Elvis (Production Design: Catherine Martin and Karen Murphy; Set Decoration: Bev Dunn)
The Fabelmans (Production Design: Rick Carter; Set Decoration: Karen O’Hara)
Will Win: Babylon (confidence: 55%)
My Vote: Avatar: The Way of Water
As with Cinematography, this is more a case of not being able to see how any of the others can win, though in an alternate universe this would be my pick for the one locked win for Babylon on the back of its seven nominations including Best Picture.
*****
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
All Quiet on the Western Front (Heike Merker and Linda Eisenhamerová)
The Batman (Naomi Donne, Mike Marino, and Mike Fontaine)
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Camille Friend and Joel Harlow)
Elvis (Mark Coulier, Jason Baird, and Aldo Signoretti)
The Whale (Adrien Morot, Judy Chin, and Anne Marie Bradley)
Will Win: The Whale (confidence: 70%)
My Vote: Elvis
Should Have Been Here: Crimes of the Future
The Iron Lady rule: if you predict the accompanying performance (Fraser in Best Actor) you have to vote for the make-up that’s doing a significant percentage of the actor’s job for him.
*****
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
All Quiet on the Western Front (Volker Bertelmann)
Babylon (Justin Hurwitz)
The Banshees of Inisherin (Carter Burwell)
Everything Everywhere All at Once (Son Lux)
The Fabelmans (John Williams)
Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front (confidence: 50%)
My Vote: The Banshees of Inisherin
Should Have Been Here: She Said
Of all my off-consensus predictions, this is the one I feel best about; I think the All Quiet is abrasive and bad, but it is very noticeable, and noticeable wins Oscars (the consensus, FWIW, says to go with Babylon).
*****
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
From Black Panther: Wakanda Forever: “Lift Me Up” (Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler, Ludwig Göransson)
From Everything Everywhere All at Once: “This Is a Life” (Ryan Lott, David Byrne, Mitski)
From RRR: “Naatu Naatu” (M. M. Keeravani, Chandrabose)
From Tell It Like a Woman: “Applause” (Diane Warren)
From Top Gun: Maverick: “Hold My Hand” (Lady Gaga, BloodPop)
Will Win: “Naatu Naatu” (confidence: 90%)
My Vote: “Hold My Hand”
*****
BEST SOUND
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Elvis
Top Gun: Maverick
Will Win: Top Gun: Maverick (confidence: 70%)
My Vote: Elvis
*****
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Top Gun: Maverick
Will Win: Avatar: The Way of Water (confidence: 95%)
My Vote: Avatar: The Way of Water
Should Have Been Here: Nope
*****
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast
Turning Red
Will Win: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (confidence: 55%)
My Vote: Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Should Have Been Here: Inu-oh
Of all my on-consensus opinions, this is the one where I’m most thinking about being brave: Puss in Boots: The Last Wish is making a shitload of money, and it seems to have an almost universal response of “I couldn’t believe how great I thought that was”, compared to Pinocchio, which is getting more of a “that’s precisely as good as I expected” response. But I do take the point that they love del Toro, the film looks extremely distinctive, and Netflix self-evidently wants this more than Universal does, so I assume they put some extra money into it.
*****
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
Close (Belgium)
EO (Poland)
The Quiet Girl (Ireland)
Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front (confidence: 95%)
My Vote: EO
Should Have Been Here: Decision to Leave
*****
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
All That Breathes
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Fire of Love
A House Made of Splinters
Navalny
Will Win: Fire of Love (confidence: 60%)
My Vote: All That Breathes
Your options: Fire of Love is the “nice” one, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed is the “important” one, and Navalny is the “topical” one. It’s been a lot of years since they went for the “topical” one, and my instinct is that the “nice” ones have been slightly overperforming over the last ten years.
*****
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
The Elephant Whisperers
Haulout
How Do You Measure a Year?
The Martha Mitchell Effect
Stranger at the Gate
Will Win: Stranger at the Gate (confidence: 55%)
My Vote: Haulout
The same breakdown: The Elephant Whisperers is very “nice”, Stranger at the Gate is vaguely “important”, and The Martha Mitchell Effect is in some distant, abstract way “topical”. “Nice” has much less of an advantage in the short category, and Malala Yousafzai has apparently been doing a lot of work promoting Stranger at the Gate, which I think is what it takes to tip the balance, but the counter-argument is that Stranger at the Gate is sort of actively terrible. Haha, like quality affects what wins Oscars.
*****
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
The Flying Sailor
Ice Merchants
My Year of Dicks
An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It
Will Win: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse (confidence: 80%)
My Vote: Ice Merchants
My old standby rule, “Tim’s least-favorite nominee wins” has come back in a big way recently after about a decade of not working, and on top of it The Boy, the Mole, His Wife and Her Lover has that Apple money behind it.
*****
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
An Irish Goodbye
Ivalu
Le Pupille
Night Ride
The Red Suitcase
Will Win: Le Pupille (confidence: 75%)
My Vote: The Red Suitcase