Alternate Ending’s chief critic, Tim Brayton, and contributors Brennan Klein and Chris Trengove share their predictions for what will win at the Academy Awards ceremony on Sunday, 27 March.
TIM’S PREDICTIONS
Jump to Brennan’s predictions | Jump to Chris’s predictions
Best Picture
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Will Win: CODA
Should Win: The Power of the Dog
Should Have Been Nominated: The Tragedy of Macbeth
Am I being thoroughly reactionary, overcompensating for CODA‘s PGA win by throwing out all faith I ever had that The Power of the Dog was heading for the night’s biggest overall haul of statues, or at least tied? (Which is where I was until last week). Probably. But it also fits in with the sentiment I’ve been expressing ever since Dog became the frontrunner, every time it comes up in conversation: “it’s just weird, because it doesn’t feel like a Best Picture winner”. Which till now was said in awe, rather than miserable disappointment, but at least CODA does, in the ugliest way, feel like a Best Picture winner.
For the record, I would not be at all surprised if it turns out the Academy’s anti-streaming bias really does go that deep, and somehow Belfast manages to come out of nowhere to win. Indeed, I kind of think I’m now rooting for this.
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Hamaguchi Ryusuke, Drive My Car
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Will Win: Jane Campion
Should Win: Jane Campion
Should Have Been Nominated: Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Here’s how I know I’m being reactionary: I’m trying to figure out how to motivate predicting a Campion loss, because if the film doesn’t win Best Picture, it seems daft for her to win Best Director. At the same time, while she mostly can’t win here, I think the other four nominees can win even less. So I’m leaving her in, even with a fair amount of confidence, but the whole category now feels like a gloomy farce.
Best Actor
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield, tick, tick…Boom!
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Will Win: Will Smith
Should Win: Benedict Cumberbatch
Should Have Been Nominated: Nicolas Cage, Pig
I mean, it’s been obvious since weeks befoe the film opened, and not one thing since October has even slightly troubled Smith’s clean march to victory.
Best Actress
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Penélope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Will Win: Jessica Chastain
Should Win: Kristen Stewart
Should Have Been Nominated: Renata Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World
Probably the only category of the night where I can see a good argument for every single nominee to win, though the argument is weakest for Colman. And why not? It’s probably the highest average quality category of the night, certainly in the Big Eight. I’m going with SAG and the general sense of “overdue”-ness to predict Chastain (in my least-favorite of the five nominees, no less), but it’s my lowest-confidence prediction out of all 23 categories.
Best Supporting Actor
Ciarán Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Will Win: Troy Kotsur
Should Win: Kodi Smit-McPhee
Should Have Been Nominated: Jared Leto, House of Gucci
We shifted from “Smit-McPhee is a lock” to “Kotsur” is a lock extremely fast, but a lock he nevertheless seems. And if one has CODA winning Picture, one is almost obliged to give it a clean sweep of its three nominations.
Best Supporting Actress
Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Judi Dench, Belfast
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Will Win: Ariana DeBose
Should Win: Kirsten Dunst
Should Have Been Nominated: Kathryn Hunter, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Anita is just one of those roles where even a halfway-competent interpretation is awards bait. And I don’t know that DeBose was much better than that, to be honest (she bungles the second act, in large part because Tony Kushner’s script has given her some impossible turns to navigate), but I can’t remotely imagine the argument that one of the other nominees wins.
Best Adapted Screenplay
CODA (Siân Heder)
Drive My Car (Hamaguchi Ryusuke, Oe Takamasa)
Dune (Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve, Eric Roth)
The Lost Daughter (Maggie Gyllenhaal)
The Power of the Dog (Jane Campion)
Will Win: CODA
Should Win: The Power of the Dog
It goes something like this: CODA wins Best Picture, it has to win here, too. And if it doesn’t win Best Picture, this is where you give it a little bit of spread-the-wealth love. Same result either way, despite being readily the worst of the nominees (and I also see that spread-the-wealth thing in play for The Lost Daughter, but obviously, they loved that one less).
Best Original Screenplay
Belfast (Kenneth Branagh)
Don’t Look Up (Adam McKay, David Sirota)
King Richard (Zach Baylin)
Licorice Pizza (Paul Thomas Anderson)
The Worst Person in the World (Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier)
Will Win: Belfast
Should Win: The Worst Person in the World
Should Have Been Nominated: A Hero (Asghar Farhadi)
Extremely tough, and I would not be at all surprised if Don’t Look Up made it in; I would be only momentarily rattled if Licorice Pizza did. But Belfast plainly had broader support than either of those two, and this is surely its best shot at winning anything.
Best Cinematography
Dune (Greig Fraser)
Nightmare Alley (Dan Laustsen)
The Power of the Dog (Ari Wegner)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (Bruno Delbonnel)
West Side Story (Janusz Kamiński)
Will Win: The Power of the Dog
Should Win: The Tragedy of Macbeth
Every part of my good sense screams that this will go to Dune, but if Jane Campion wins Best Director, The Power of the Dog absolutely needs to win a second award. And I don’t think it has a better chance for that second award than here. Is this terrible logic? Yes, but that’s where my gut took me.
Best Costume Design
Cruella (Jenny Beavan)
Cyrano (Massimo Cantini Parrini, Jacqueline Durran)
Dune (Jacqueline West, Robert Morgan)
Nightmare Alley (Luis Sequeira)
West Side Story (Paul Tazewell)
Will Win: Cruella
Should Win: Cruella
Should Have Been Nominated: Spencer (Jacqueline Durran)
It’s a movie “about” costuming, and Beavan is Oscar royalty. Sometimes overthinking just slows you down.
Best Editing
Don’t Look Up (Hank Corwin)
Dune (Joe Walker)
King Richard (Pamela Martin)
The Power of the Dog (Peter Sciberras)
tick, tick…Boom! (Myron Kerstein, Andrew Weisblum)
Will Win: Dune
Should Win: Dune
Should Have Been Nominated: The Tragedy of Macbeth
In theory, if I’m being a panicky ninny and Dog has a good shot at Best Picture, it picks this one up pretty comfortably too. But I also feel like Dune makes such a grand spectacle out of its craftsmanship that it’s the default one to check off for all of the below-the-line awards that don’t have a clear reason to vote elsewhere, especially given the complete lack of tech powerhouses otherwise this year.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Coming 2 America (Mike Marino, Stacey Morris, Carla Farmer)
Cruella (Nadia Stacey, Naomi Donne, Julia Vernon)
Dune (Donald Mowat, Love Larson, Eva von Bahr)
The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram, Justin Raleigh)
House of Gucci (Göran Lundström, Anna Carin Lock, Frederic Aspiras)
Will Win: The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Should Win: House of Gucci
Here’s a clear reason to vote elsewhere: it’s a big, flashy “make one famous person look like a different famous person” job, and the different famous person was in part famous for wearing makeup. Basically, I think this can win without Chastain winning Actress, whereas I don’t think she can win Actress without this winning.
Best Production Design
Dune (Patrice Vermette, Richard Roberts, Zsuzsanna Sipos)
Nightmare Alley (Tamara Deverell, Shane Vieau)
The Power of the Dog (Grant Major, Amber Richards)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (Stefan Dechant, Nancy Haigh)
West Side Story (Adam Stockhausen, Rena DeAngelo)
Will Win: Dune
Should Win: Dune
Should Have Been Nominated: The French Dispatch (Adam Stockhausen, Rena DeAngelo)
Again, I’m going with a Dune tech sweep. Perhaps if Nightmare Alley hadn’t been a wet fart at the box office, I’d feel differently; but, well, it was.
Best Original Score
Don’t Look Up (Nicholas Britell)
Dune (Hans Zimmer)
Encanto (Germaine Franco)
Parallel Mothers (Alberto Iglesias)
The Power of the Dog (Jonny Greenwood)
Will Win: Dune
Should Win: The Power of the Dog
Should Have Been Nominated: Spencer (Jonny Greenwood)
See the next category.
Best Original Song
From Belfast: “Down to Joy” (music & lyrics by Van Morrison)
From Encanto: “Dos Oruguitas” (music & lyrics by Lin-Manuel Miranda)
From Four Good Days: “Somehow You Do” (music & lyrics by Diane Warren)
From King Richard: “Be Alive” (music & lyrics by Beyoncé & Dixson)
From No Time to Die: “No Time to Die” (music & lyrics by Billie Eilish & Finneas O’Connell)
Will Win: “Dos Oruguitas”
Should Win: “Dos Oruguitas”
So, my feeling is this: based on the monstrous overperformance of its soundtrack and “We Don’t Talk About Bruno”, Encanto simply has to win one of the the music categories. But for some reason, I think it wins only one of the music categories. So it’s either “Dos Oruguitas” here and Dune for Score, or Encanto for score and “No Time to Die” as the third consecutive Bond theme to win an Oscar, after a complete shut-out for the franchise prior to 2012. And the way that Original Song has been overperforming for famous pop acts lately says that Billie Eilish has this in a walk, but on the other hand, Lin-Manuel Miranda gets his EGOT of “Dos Oruguitas” wins. And maybe I’m completely wrong, and Encanto puts up a goose egg in both categories. I think I feel safer about Dune than Encanto in Original Score, which is how I’ve broken my mental tie, but the whole thing feels pretty tangled, if I am being honest.
Best Sound
Belfast (Denise Yarde, Simon Chase, James Mather, Niv Adiri)
Dune (Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill, Ron Bartlett)
No Time to Die (Simon Hayes, Oliver Tarney, James Harrison, Paul Massey, Mark Taylor)
The Power of the Dog (Richard Flynn, Robert Mackenzie, Tara Webb)
West Side Story (Tod A. Maitland, Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson, Shawn Murphy)
Will Win: Dune
Should Win: Dune
Once upon a time, this was the “Musical” category, if a musical was available, but they collapsed the two sound categories into one last year, and we’re still feeling out that new normal. I am for right now predicting that this becomes the “Action” category when an even halfway acceptable action movie exists, and to be sure, Dune had some terrific sound work.
Best Visual Effects
Dune (Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor, Gerd Nefzer)
Free Guy (Swen Gillberg, Bryan Grill, Nikos Kalaitzidis, Dan Sudick)
No Time to Die (Charlie Noble, Joel Green, Jonathan Fawkner, Chris Corbould)
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (Christopher Townsend, Joe Farrell, Sean Noel Walker, Dan Oliver)
Spider-Man: No Way Home (Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein, Dan Sudick)
Will Win: Dune
Should Win: Dune
Should Have Been Nominated: The Matrix Resurrections
There has been a grand total of one occasion of a Best Picture nominee losing to a non-Best Picture nominee in this category. That Dune is also the worthiest nominee is merely icing.
Best International Feature Film
Drive My Car (Japan)
Flee (Denmark)
The Hand of God (Italy)
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)
The Worst Person in the World (Norway)
Will Win: Drive My Car
Should Win: The Worst Person in the World
Should Have Been Nominated: A Hero (Iran)
There have been, I think, no exceptions at all to the rule that a Best Picture nominee in this category wins it, and while I’m still not clear why Drive My Car is “great” rather than “a good, fairly typical example of Japanese art cinema”, clearly nobody this awards season has been interested in my opinion.
Best Documentary Feature
Ascension
Attica
Flee
Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
Writing with Fire
Will Win: Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
Should Win: Ascension
Should Have Been Nominated: President
This category loves political self-importance; it loves feel-good musical celebrations; and it has both of them in one body this year.
Best Documentary, Short Subject
Audible
Lead Me Home
The Queen of Basketball
Three Songs for Benazir
When We Were Bullies
Will Win: The Queen of Basketball
Should Win: Audible
The Queen of Basketball combines two of last year’s nominees: a fascinating old lady, as we saw in Colette, and it shares a director with A Concerto Is a Conversation, who brings his excessively dull aesthetic along with him. Which is to say, I’m not at all excited by this win, but it’s also an abnormally bland year even for this rarely-exciting category. It also helps that The Queen of Basketball feels the most “important” of the films, though Audible can give it at least some competition on that front.
Best Animated Feature
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon
Will Win: Encanto
Should Win: The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Should Have Been Nominated: Belle
One of the most unexciting years in this category’s history: the only nominee I genuinely like as a movie is Flee, and the animation is the element of that film I like least. Anyways, Disney plus recency bias, and that’s how the film that impresses me the least out of an unimpressive set waltzes away with it.
Best Short Film, Animated
Affairs of the Art
Bestia
BoxBallet
Robin Robin
The Windshield Wiper
Will Win: Robin Robin
Should Win: Robin Robin
Aardman Animation typically does very well here, and I might be willing to go with Robin Robin solely for that reason. But on top of it, the films here are generally kind of fucked-up, weird, and unpleasant, and Robin Robin is the very obvious outlier in that respect (it’s a children’s Christmas movie), which I think gives it an extra leg up.
Best Short Film, Live Action
Ala Kachuu – Take and Run
The Dress
The Long Goodbye
On My Mind
Please Hold
Will Win: The Long Goodbye
Should Win: Ala Kachuu – Take and Run
Should Have Been Nominated: Les Grandes Claques
If any nominee has a famous person, my strategy is always to predict it; The Long Goodbye has Riz Ahmed, not just as a star, but a producer. It’s also the very obvious “most important” film here – Please Hold is probably just as “important”, but inside a sci-fi wrapper that they might find too glib, and Ala Kachuu is “important” about people who don’t live in the Anglosphere.
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BRENNAN’S PREDICTIONS
Jump to Tim’s predictions | Jump to Chris’s predictions
Best Picture
The Power of the Dog
Best Director
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Best Actor
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Best Actress
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Best Supporting Actor
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Best Supporting Actress
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Power of the Dog (Jane Campion)
Best Original Screenplay
Licorice Pizza (Paul Thomas Anderson)
Best Cinematography
The Power of the Dog (Ari Wegner)
Best Costume Design
Nightmare Alley (Luis Sequeira)
Best Editing
The Power of the Dog (Peter Sciberras)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Dune (Donald Mowat, Love Larson, Eva von Bahr)
Best Production Design
Nightmare Alley (Tamara Deverell, Shane Vieau)
Best Original Score
The Power of the Dog (Jonny Greenwood)
Best Original Song
From No Time to Die: “No Time to Die” (music & lyrics by Billie Eilish & Finneas O’Connell)
Best Sound
West Side Story (Tod A. Maitland, Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson, Shawn Murphy)
Best Visual Effects
Dune (Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor, Gerd Nefzer)
Best International Feature Film
Drive My Car (Japan)
Best Documentary Feature
Flee
Best Documentary, Short Subject
When We Were Bullies
Best Animated Feature
Encanto
Best Short Film, Animated
Robin Robin
Best Short Film, Live Action
The Long Goodbye
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CHRIS’S PREDICTIONS
Jump to Tim’s predictions | Jump to Brennan’s predictions
Best Picture
The Power of the Dog
Best Director
Jane Campion,
Best Actor
Will Smith, King Richard
Best Actress
Penélope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Best Supporting Actor
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Best Supporting Actress
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Best Adapted Screenplay
CODA (Sian Heder)
Best Original Screenplay
Belfast (Kenneth Branagh)
Best Cinematography
The Power of the Dog (Ari Wegner)
Best Costume Design
Cruella (Jenny Beavan)
Best Editing
Dune (Joe Walker)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram, Justin Raleigh)
Best Production Design
Dune (Patrice Vermette, Richard Roberts, Zsuzsanna Sipos)
Best Original Score
Dune (Hans Zimmer)
Best Original Song
From No Time to Die: “No Time to Die” (music & lyrics by Billie Eilish & Finneas O’Connell)
Best Sound
Dune (Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill, Ron Bartlett)
Best Visual Effects
Dune (Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor, Gerd Nefzer)
Best International Feature Film
Drive My Car (Japan)
Best Documentary Feature
Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
Best Documentary, Short Subject
Audible
Best Animated Feature
Encanto
Best Short Film, Animated
Robin Robin
Best Short Film, Live Action
The Long Goodbye