Some folks love the Oscars, and obsessively follow them every year, nomination announcements to award campaigning to treating the grand ceremony like their Super Bowl. On the other hand, some folks hate the Oscars, and think it’s simply Hollywood patting themselves on the back, while largely ignoring both quality big-budget populism and great arthouse cinema in favor of vanilla, middle-of-the-road “crowd-pleasing” formula (AKA Oscarbait). And then there are folks who are both – like me!
For better or worse, I do obsess over the Oscars, and I have ever since The Mask brazenly lost to Forrest Gump in Visual Effects in the 1994 awards.
Thank goodness I’m not alone. Tim and Mandy also are Oscar junkies, and we all attempted some predictions. Tim and I took a stab at all 23 categories, while Mandy predicted the top 8.
This morning, the 2021 Oscar nominations were finally announced. There were plenty of expected “locks,” as well as some uncertainty. Let’s go through each category, see who was picked, who was snubbed, and how our resident gurus fared.
Best Picture
Nominees: Belfast, CODA, Don’t Look Up, Drive My Car, Dune, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog, West Side Story
Tim Score: 8/10
Chris Score: 9/10
Mandy Score: 7/10
Expected: There was a lot of certainty going into this category, starting with The Power of the Dog, Belfast, Licorice Pizza, Dune, and West Side Story as locks (all five were Directors Guild Award nominees). CODA, Don’t Look Up, and King Richard weren’t as certain, but were still widely expected to claim spots. That left two openings, where, by my estimate, 6 movies were competing: Tick, tick… BOOM!, Being the Ricardos, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Nightmare Alley, House of Gucci, and Drive My Car.
Surprise: While I predicted Nightmare Alley, many didn’t, while even more (myself included) omitted Drive My Car. I’m guessing Nightmare Alley was helped by being an accessible genre, and from Guillermo del Toro’s wide likability. As for the tenth spot, critics’ awards favorite Drive My Car was able to secure it (the New York Film Critics Circle, Los Angeles Film Critics Association, and National Society of Film Critics all awarded it Best Film). I didn’t think the Academy would give a nod, but it clearly has an ardent fan base (it’s my favorite/best movie of 2021). Nominations like this renew my faith in Academy voters… at least for now.
When I saw Drive My Car at 8pm the night before a 9am flight to Florida, I never thought it would’ve received a Best Picture Oscar nod. It was way too arthouse, too Japanese, and too long, I thought, to get the Academy’s attention. Rather, it would be one of those movies where cinephiles get to say for years to come ‘well, at least we knew it was the best/among the best of that year, even if the Academy ignored it…’ I’ve never been so pleasantly happy to be wrong (I should’ve gone with my heart and predicted it…).
Snubs: It’s hard to say any of the aforementioned four are major snubs with the race so tight. But Being the Ricardos and Tick, tick… BOOM! – the only two recipients of Producer Guild Awards nominations to not get an equivalent Oscar nod – would be closest.
Should’ve been nominated: Benedetta; Memoria.
Director
Nominees: Belfast (Kenneth Branagh), Drive My Car (Hamaguchi Ryūsuke), Licorice Pizza (Paul Thomas Anderson), The Power of the Dog (Jane Campion), West Side Story (Steven Spielberg)
Tim Score: 4/5
Chris Score: 4/5
Mandy Score: 2/5
Expected: This has had the feeling of a one-horse race for some time, and that horse is Jane Campion. She won the Golden Globe, many film critics’ awards, was nominated by the DGA and BAFTA, and is the clear front-runner to become the third ever woman to win Best Director. While I wasn’t certain earlier in the season, Paul Thomas Anderson also seemed destined for a nomination.
Surprise: While I predicted Hamaguchi Ryūsuke to be nominated, many didn’t, thinking this might be the first time in over fifty years where both the Oscars and DGA align perfectly. But Hamaguchi, who was snubbed from DGA, made some sense to me, as the Academy’s directors’ branch has had a tendency to nominate unexpected arthouse and/or international favorites (e.g. Thomas Vinterberg for Another Round, my favorite 2020 film, Paweł Pawlikowski for Cold War, etc.). A few prognosticators had predicted that Hamaguchi would indeed be nominated, but at the expense of Steven Spielberg. But it was hard for me to agree with that storyline, given how seemingly effortlessly the King of American Populism made a Big Hollywood-style musical for the first time in his storied career. Spielberg has now been nominated for a Best Director Oscar 8 times and in each of the past 6 decades.
Snub: Yeah, this one is shocking. Denis Villeneuve was widely considered a lock for his sci-fi opus, Dune. He scored nominations with both the Golden Globes and DGA, but was also snubbed by BAFTA. I figured that was an outlier, but Villeneuve remains only having one Director Oscar nomination to his name (Arrival).
Should’ve been nominated: Dune (Denis Villeneuve); Memoria (Apichatpong Weerasethakul).
Lead Actress
Nominees: Being the Ricardos (Nicole Kidman), The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Jessica Chastain), The Lost Daughter (Olivia Colman), Parallel Mothers (Penélope Cruz), Spencer (Kristen Stewart)
Tim Score: 3/5
Chris Score: 4/5
Mandy Score: 1/5
Expected: Despite their snubs from BAFTA, which can be attributed to the British panelist system, Nicole Kidman and Olivia Colman are the two front-runners for this category and have been for some time. They were the only two locks, and neither were upset. Jessica Chastain as Tammy Faye Bakker was seemingly not as locked, but stood the next most likely chance.
Surprise: Well, surprise, surprise, indeed… After Kidman and Colman, this has been the most difficult race to predict all season long. And a big part of that is because Kristen Stewart’s revelatory work in Spencer led her to be considered the front-runner the minute her movie was released… until the New York Film Critics Circle awarded Lady Gaga instead… and then Stewart was snubbed by SAG… and then by BAFTA… and all of a sudden, it seemed very possible – if not likely – that Stewart would be similarly snubbed by the Academy. Fortunately, that did not happen. Though, it’s still crazy that we’re at a point where Stewart’s nomination is considered a “surprise.”
While I predicted Penélope Cruz would get in for Parallel Mothers, Tim, Mandy, and many others did not, largely due to concerns that the Sony Pictures Classics release strategy was too little, too late, and that Parallel Mothers isn’t as widely beloved as past Almodóvars that scored Oscar nominations (e.g. Volver and Talk to Her). Yet, Cruz gives the best lead actress performance of the year in my book, and the Academy took notice. I couldn’t be happier she received her fourth Oscar nomination.
Snub: As it turns out, apparently awards campaigning isn’t everything. Lady Gaga, who gave a very admirable performance in Ridley Scott’s House of Gucci, did anything and everything she could over the past two months to secure her second Oscar acting nomination. Some argued that her performance on the campaign trail was even “greater” than in the film. But it didn’t work in her favor, and Lady Gaga joins Villeneuve as the two most shocking snubs of the day. Jennifer Hudson, who received a SAG nomination for her work in Respect, and Alana Haim, who received recognition from BAFTA for Licorice Pizza, were both also left in the cold.
Should’ve been nominated: Benedetta (Virginie Efira); Passing (Tessa Thompson).
Lead Actor
Nominees: Being the Ricardos (Javier Bardem), King Richard (Will Smith), The Power of the Dog (Benedict Cumberbatch), Tick, tick… BOOM! (Andrew Garfield), The Tragedy of Macbeth (Denzel Washington)
Tim Score: 5/5
Chris Score: 4/5
Mandy Score: 3/5
Expected: Unlike Lead Actress, this category has been established for a while. Will Smith is and has been the expected eventual winner since the movie’s November release, and if anyone beats him, it’ll be Sir Benedict Timothy Carlton Cumberbatch, who has similarly been locked in. Andrew Garfield and Denzel Washington have also been considered locks for over a month.
Surprise: So that left the final spot. Javier Bardem snagging it isn’t really a surprise, after, surprisingly, receiving a SAG nomination. It’ll be a great evening to celebrate for the Cruz/Bardem household.
Snub: Not really any. I predicted Leonardo DiCaprio in Don’t Look Up would sneak in before Bardem, because the Academy loves their Leo, while Mandy predicted Peter Dinklage would finally be given Oscar respect for Cyrano. And yet others thought maybe Bradley Cooper could surprise with his role in Nightmare Alley. But the nomination field instead went without drama.
Should’ve been nominated: Red Rocket (Simon Rex); Pig (Nicolas Cage).
Supporting Actress
Nominees: Belfast (Judi Dench), King Richard (Aunjanue Ellis), The Lost Daughter (Jessie Buckley), The Power of the Dog (Kirsten Dunst), West Side Story (Ariana DeBose)
Tim Score: 3/5
Chris Score: 3/5
Mandy Score: 1/5
Expected: Ariana DeBose has seemed like the only sure bet in this category after winning a Golden Globe, and receiving nominations from SAG and BAFTA. She’s probably the front-runner to win, but I’m not ready to predict her just yet. Despite missing out from BAFTA, Kirsten Dunst was perhaps the next most likely to secure a nomination, the first in her career.
Surprise: That said, I thought this was a fairly safe set of five, yet 40% of my predictions were wrong. Absolutely surprising me were nominations for Jessie Buckley, for her counter-story role as Young Leda in The Lost Daughter, and Judi Dench, as everyone’s favorite Northern Irish screen grandma in Belfast. Dench was certainly in consideration, and she’s been an Oscar darling in the past. I just didn’t think she’d break the top 5, especially after going 0 for 3 with nominations from the Golden Globes, SAG, and BAFTA.
Jessie Buckley, on the other hand, I didn’t see coming, though I missed the writing on the wall with her BAFTA nod. The actors’ branch has a history of giving up-and-coming young talents their first-ever Oscar nomination in this particular category, and they did so twice in 2021 with Buckley and DeBose.
Snub: If not as shocking as Villeneuve and Gaga, these ones are probably next in line: after nominations from the Golden Globes, SAG, and BAFTA, and given the movie was expected to do well overall, I think everyone predicted Caitríona Balfe was a fairly safe bet for her wonderful work in Belfast. And despite being in a lesser-powerhouse movie, Ruth Negga likewise received nominations from the same precursors for her excellent work in Passing. Yet both were snubbed by the Academy.
Should’ve been nominated: The Tragedy of Macbeth (Kathryn Hunter); Drive My Car (Yoo-rim Park).
Supporting Actor
Nominees: Being the Ricardos (JK Simmons), Belfast (Ciaran Hinds), CODA (Troy Kotsur), The Power of the Dog (Jesse Plemons), The Power of the Dog (Kodi Smit-McPhee)
Tim Score: 3/5
Chris Score: 3/5
Mandy Score: 3/5
Expected: Similar to Will Smith in Lead Actor, Kodi Smit-McPhee is the current runaway favorite to win this category, and his nomination was never in doubt. His complex performance of a complex character was the sting that The Power of the Dog provided. Troy Kotsur in CODA and Ciaran Hinds in Belfast were also considered likely, though not locks.
Surprise: Like Supporting Actress, I was fairly comfortable with my predicted five, yet again got 40% wrong. And those two that both Tim and I missed were correctly predicted by Mandy (*When Our Powers Unite!…*). The actors’ branch is apparently obsessed with Being the Ricardos, as the film scored three times from these voters: JK Simmons received his second Oscar nomination for playing grumpy drunk William Frawley. Meanwhile, The Power of the Dog shows it’s absolutely a power with which to be reckoned, as Jesse Plemons scored a nomination. By doing so, the Netflix distributed film secured Oscar acting nominations for each of its four primary characters; an impressive feat.
Snub: Tim and I shared the two predictions who failed to secure nominations, though I wouldn’t say either were a lock. Bradley Cooper had seemingly gained momentum for his attention-getting, yet extremely brief role in Licorice Pizza (count me as very pleased that Cooper was snubbed). Meanwhile, Jared Leto, who turned in a highly divisive performance in House of Gucci, was not afforded the opportunity to be the fourth actor in history to receive an Oscar and Razzie nomination for the same role (count me as very disappointed that Leto was snubbed). There was also a strong contingent that thought Jamie Dornan could join his co-star, Hinds, for Belfast, but the Academy only gave room for one of the Belfast-born actors. Ben Affleck for The Tender Bar and Mike Faist for West Side Story were other contenders.
Should’ve been nominated: House of Gucci (Jared Leto); Titane (Vincent Lindon).
Original Screenplay
Nominees: Belfast (Kenneth Branagh), Don’t Look Up (Adam McKay), King Richard (Zach Baylin), Licorice Pizza (Paul Thomas Anderson), The Worst Person in the World (Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier)
Tim Score: 4/5
Chris Score: 4/5
Mandy Score: 3/5
Expected: Like Lead Actor, this category was fairly consistent with expectations. Though Kenneth Branagh’s Belfast didn’t qualify for the Writers Guild of America awards, there was no doubt it’d secure one with Oscar. I suspect it’s the front-runner to win, but Paul Thomas Anderson’s Licorice Pizza is right behind. Neither veteran has ever won an Oscar, and this year should change that for at least one of them. And despite its extremely mixed response (to say the least), Adam McKay for Don’t Look Up was considered likely, as was breakthrough screenwriter, Zach Baylin, for his biopic King Richard.
Surprise: While I still don’t know exactly when it was released in the U.S. in 2021 to receive Oscar qualification, it supposedly was, and The Worst Person in the World snagged the last spot here. This is one of only three narrative features nominated for a 2021 Oscar that I’ve yet to see, but I know those who have, rave about it. This is the respected Norwegian auteur Joachim Trier’s first Oscar nomination in any category.
Snub: After receiving nominations from the Golden Globes, WGA, and BAFTA, plus being a 4-time writer nominee and 1-time winner himself, Aaron Sorkin was widely expected to easily secure a nomination for Being the Ricardos. However, the Academy writers’ branch clearly isn’t as in love as the actors’ branch is with the Lucy and Ricky biopic. This is a pretty shocking snub. The movie most likely to upset any of the top five was supposed to be Pedro Almodóvar’s Parallel Mothers, though The Spanish King (ridiculously) hasn’t received a writing nomination since his 2002 win for Talk to Her. Still, I would’ve predicted Parallel Mothers over The Worst Person in the World. Elsewhere, Wes Anderson’s The French Dispatch received a WGA nod, but wasn’t expected to succeed here, while Mike Mills’s C’mon C’mon was considered a long-shot.
Should’ve been nominated: Parallel Mothers (Pedro Almodóvar); Pig (Michael Sarnoski).
Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: CODA (Siân Heder), Drive My Car (Hamaguchi Ryūsuke, Oe Takamasa), Dune (Denis Villenueve, Jon Spaihts, Eric Roth), The Lost Daughter (Maggie Gyllenhaal), The Power of the Dog (Jane Campion)
Tim Score: 4/5
Chris Score: 5/5
Mandy Score: 4/5
Expected: Like its sister category, Adapted Screenplay went largely as anticipated. Jane Campion is the front-runner to receive her second Oscar statuette for writing with The Power of the Dog. Meanwhile, CODA, Dune, and The Lost Daughter all did well with precursors, and were expected to be among the final five with Oscar.
Surprise: It’s not really a surprise, but Drive My Car was not a sure thing to snag the fifth spot. But the momentum for Hamaguchi and how he turned a 40-page Murakami short story into a three-hour long character epic seemed unstoppable. I wouldn’t be shocked if it upset Campion for the win.
Snub: West Side Story (Tim’s prediction), The Tragedy of Macbeth (Mandy’s), and Nightmare Alley were all in consideration, but none were sure bets.
Should’ve been nominated: Benedetta (David Birke, Paul Verhoeven).
Cinematography
Nominees: Dune (Greig Fraser), Nightmare Alley (Dan Laustsen), The Power of the Dog (Ari Wegner), The Tragedy of Macbeth (Bruno Delbonnel), West Side Story (Janusz Kaminski)
Tim Score: 4/5
Chris Score: 4/5
Surprise: Not really.
Snub: Belfast.
Should’ve been nominated: The Hand of God (Daria D’Antonio); Spencer (Claire Mathon).
Costume Design
Nominees: Cruella (Jenny Beavan), Cyrano (Massimo Cantini Parrini), Dune (Jacqueline West, Bob Morgan), Nightmare Alley (Luis Sequeira), West Side Story (Paul Tazewell)
Tim Score: 4/5
Chris Score: 4/5
Surprise: Cyrano.
Snub: House of Gucci, Spencer.
Should’ve been nominated: The Last Duel (Janty Yates); The Green Knight (Malgosia Turzanska).
Editing
Nominees: Don’t Look Up (Hank Corwin), Dune (Joe Walker), King Richard (Pamela Martin), The Power of the Dog (Peter Sciberras), Tick, tick… BOOM! (Myron Kerstein, Andrew Weisblum)
Tim Score: 3/5
Chris Score: 3/5
Surprise: King Richard, Tick, tick… BOOM!
Snub: Belfast, Licorice Pizza, No Time to Die, West Side Story.
Should’ve been nominated: Drive My Car (Azusa Yamazaki); Malignant (Kirk Morri).
Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees: Coming 2 America, Cruella, Dune, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, House of Gucci
Tim Score: 5/5
Chris Score: 4/5
Surprise: Not really.
Snub: The Suicide Squad.
Should’ve been nominated: The Last Duel; The Suicide Squad.
Production Design
Nominees: Dune (Patrice Vermette, Zsuzsanna Sipos), Nightmare Alley (Tamara Deverell, Shane Vieau), The Power of the Dog (Grant Major, Amber Richards), The Tragedy of Macbeth (Stefan Dechant, Nancy Haigh), West Side Story (Adam Stockhausen, Rena DeAngelo)
Tim Score: 3/5
Chris Score: 4/5
Surprise: The Power of the Dog.
Snub: The French Dispatch, The Green Knight.
Should’ve been nominated: The French Dispatch (Adam Stockhausen, Rena DeAngelo); Prisoners of the Ghostland (Isomi Toshihiro).
Original Score
Nominees: Don’t Look Up (Nicholas Britell), Dune (Hans Zimmer), Encanto (Germaine Franco), Parallel Mothers (Alberto Iglesias), The Power of the Dog (Jonny Greenwood)
Tim Score: 4/5
Chris Score: 4/5
Surprise: Not really.
Snub: The French Dispatch.
Should’ve been nominated: Spencer (Jonny Greenwood); Pig (Alexis Grapsas, Philip Klein).
Original Song
Nominees: Belfast (“Down to Joy”), Encanto (“Dos Oruguitas”), Four Good Days (“Somehow You Do”), King Richard (“Be Alive”), No Time to Die (“No Time to Die”).
Tim Score: 4/5
Chris Score: 3/5
Surprise: Four Good Days.
Snub: Respect.
Should’ve been nominated: Annette (“So May We Start”).
Sound
Nominees: Belfast, Dune, No Time to Die, The Power of the Dog, West Side Story
Tim Score: 4/5
Chris Score: 4/5
Surprise: The Power of the Dog.
Snub: Spider-Man: No Way Home, A Quiet Place Part II.
Should’ve been nominated: Memoria; The Tragedy of Macbeth.
Visual Effects
Nominees: Dune, Free Guy, No Time to Die, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Spider-Man: No Way Home
Tim Score: 3/5
Chris Score: 3/5
Surprise: Not really.
Snub: Godzilla vs Kong, The Matrix Resurrections.
Should’ve been nominated: Godzilla vs Kong; Finch; Zack Snyder’s Justice League.
International Feature
Nominees: Drive My Car (Japan), Flee (Denmark), The Hand of God (Italy), Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan), The Worst Person in the World (Norway).
Tim Score: 4/5
Chris Score: 4/5
Surprise: Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom.
Snub: A Hero.
Should’ve been nominated: Benedetta (France), Memoria (Colombia).
Documentary Feature
Nominees: Ascension, Attica, Flee, Summer of Soul, Writing with Fire
Tim Score: 3/5
Chris Score: 3/5
Surprise: Attica, Writing with Fire.
Snub: Procession, The Rescue.
Should’ve been nominated: A Cop Movie; All Light, Everywhere.
Documentary Short Subject
Nominees: Audible, Lead Me Home, The Queen of Basketball, Three Songs for Benazir, When We Were Bullies.
Tim Score: 4/5
Chris Score: 3/5
Animated Feature
Nominees: Encanto, Flee, Luca, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Raya and the Last Dragon
Tim Score: 4/5
Chris Score: 4/5
Surprise: Not really.
Snub: Belle.
Should’ve been nominated: Belle (presumably; I’ve yet to see).
Animated Short Film
Nominees: Affairs of the Art, Bestia, BoxBallet, Robin Robin, The Windshield Wiper
Tim Score: 2/5
Chris Score: 2/5
Live Action Short Film
Nominees: Ala Kachuu, The Dress, The Long Goodbye, On My Mind, Please Hold
Tim Score: 1/5
Chris Score: 1/5
To recap…
The biggest surprise nominations include Drive My Car (Best Picture), Kristen Stewart in Spencer (Lead Actress), Jessie Buckley in The Lost Daughter (Supporting Actress), JK Simmons in Being the Ricardos (Supporting Actor), Jesse Plemons in The Power of the Dog (Supporting Actor), The Worst Person in the World (Original Screenplay), and Tick, tick… BOOM! (Editing).
The biggest snubs were Denis Villeneuve in Dune (Director), Lady Gaga in House of Gucci (Lead Actress), Caitríona Balfe in Belfast (Supporting Actress), Ruth Negga in Passing (Supporting Actress), Jared Leto in House of Gucci (Supporting Actor), Being the Ricardos (Original Screenplay), Belfast (Editing), The French Dispatch (Production Design), and A Hero (International Feature).
The Power of the Dog received the most nominations with 12, Dune secured the second most with 10, Belfast and West Side Story each scored 7, and King Richard logged 6.
Jane Campion becomes the first woman ever to receive a second nomination in Best Director, following her 1993 nomination for The Piano.
Flee becomes the first movie ever to be nominated in all three of the following categories: International Feature, Animated Feature, and Documentary Feature.
Samuel L. Jackson, Elaine May, and Liv Ullmann will receive Honorary Academy Awards. Danny Glover will receive the Jean Hersholt Humanitarian Award.
As for guru predictions, I took the lead by correctly predicting 86 out of the 120 total nominations, while also receiving the highest score (or tying) in 19 of the 23 categories. Tim took second with 82/120 and 17/23. Mandy took third, as she predicted, with 24/45 correct nominations and 1/8 rounds.
This year’s Academy Awards air on Sunday, March 27th. Let the award campaigning begin.
For whom are you most excited and/or most disappointed?
Chris Trengove has a BFA in acting, an MA from the University of Denver in international relations, and during the day, he works for the economic development agency of Northern Ireland. While he’s lived in Denver, Washington D.C., and Beijing, he calls Chicago home and has for most of his life. He lives with his wife (Laura) and two young boys (Aiden and Callum), and within a 20-minute walk of the Music Box Theater. Follow Chris on Letterboxd and Twitter.