The Oscar nominations are upon us, and I would hate myself if I didn’t register my official predictions for what I expect to be nominated on the morning of Monday, 13 January.
PICTURE
1917
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time …in Hollywood
Parasite
I am formally predicting only the above eight films. If there is a ninth nominee, I expect it to be:
Knives Out
If there is a tenth, I expect it to be:
Bombshell
I got 8/9 – Missed Ford v Ferrari
DIRECTOR
Bong Joon-ho, Parasite
Sam Mendes, 1917
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time …in Hollywood
Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit
Alternate: Greta Gerwig, Little Women
I got 4/5 – Missed Todd Phillips, Joker
ACTOR
Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time …in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Alternate: Taron Egerton, Rocketman
I got 4/5 – Missed Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Lupita Nyong’o, Us
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renée Zellweger, Judy
Alternate: Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
I got 4/5 – Missed Ronan
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time …in Hollywood
Alternate: Song Kang Ho, Parasite
I got 5/5
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Alternate: Nicole Kidman, Bombshell
I got 4/5 – Missed Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Irishman (Steven Zaillian)
Jojo Rabbit (Taika Waititi)
Joker (Todd Phillips, Scott Silver)
Little Women (Greta Gerwig)
The Two Popes (Anthony McCarten)
Alternate: A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Noah Harpster, Micah Fitzerman-Blue)
I got 5/5
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1917 (Sam Mendes, Krysty Wilson-Cairns)
Knives Out (Rian Johnson)
Marriage Story (Noah Baumbach)
Once Upon a Time …in Hollywood (Quentin Tarantino)
Parasite (Bong Joon Ho, Han Jin Wan)
Alternate: The Farewell (Lulu Wang)
I got 5/5
CINEMATOGRAPHY
1917 (Roger Deakins)
Ford v Ferrari (Phedon Papamichael)
The Irishman (Rodrigo Prieto)
The Lighthouse (Jarin Blaschke)
Once Upon a Time …in Hollywood (Robert Richardson)
Alternate: Joker (Lawrence Sher)
I got 4/5 – Missed Joker
EDITING
Ford v Ferrari (Andrew Buckland, Michael McCusker, Dirk Westervelt)
The Irishman (Thelma Schoonmaker)
Joker (Jeff Groth)
Once Upon a Time …in Hollywood (Fred Raskin)
Parasite (Yang Jin Mo)
Alternate: Jojo Rabbit (Tom Eagles)
I got 4/5 – Missed Jojo Rabbit
COSTUME DESIGN
Dolemite Is My Name (Ruth E. Carter)
Jojo Rabbit (Mayes C. Rubeo)
Little Women (Jacqueline Durran)
Once Upon a Time …in Hollywood (Arianne Phillips)
Rocketman (Julian Day)
Alternate: Downton Abbey (Anna Robbins)
I got 3/5 – missed The Irishman and Joker
PRODUCTION DESIGN
1917 (Dennis Gassner; Lee Sandales)
The Irishman (Bob Shaw; Regina Graves)
Jojo Rabbit (Rob Vincent; Nora Sopková)
Little Women (Jess Gonchor; Claire Kaufman)
Once Upon a Time …in Hollywood (Barbara Ling; Nancy Haigh)
Alternate: Parasite (Lee Ha Jun)
I got 4/5 – missed Parasite
HAIR & MAKEUP
Bombshell
Joker
Judy
Once Upon a Time …in Hollywood
Rocketman
Alternate: Dolemite Is My Name
I got 3/5 – missed Maleficent: Mistress of Evil and 1917
SCORE
1917 (Thomas Newman)
Joker (Hildur Guðnadóttir)
Little Women (Alexandre Desplat)
Marriage Story (Randy Newman)
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (John Williams)
Alternate: Pain and Glory (Alberto Iglesias)
I got 5/5
SONG
From Frozen II: “Into the Unknown”
From Harriet: “Stand Up”
From The Lion King: “Spirit”
From Rocketman: “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again”
From Wild Rose: “Glasgow”
Alternate: From Toy Story 4: “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away”
I got 3/5 – missed Breakthrough and Toy Story 4
SOUND
1917
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
Once Upon a Time …in Hollywood
Rocketman
Alternate: Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
I got 4/5 – missed Ad Astra
SOUND EDITING
1917
Avengers: Endgame
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
Once Upon a Time …in Hollywood
Alternate: Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
I got 4/5 – missed Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
VISUAL EFFECTS
1917
Avengers: Endgame
The Irishman
The Lion King
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Alternate: Alita: Battle Angel
I got 5/5
INTERNATIONAL
Atlantics (Senegal)
Corpus Christi (Poland)
Les Misérables (France)
Pain and Glory (Spain)
Parasite (South Korea)
Alternate: Beanpole (Russia)
I got 4/5 – missed Honeyland
ANIMATED FEATURE
Frozen II
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body
Missing Link
Toy Story 4
Alternate: Klaus
I got 4/5 – missed Klaus
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
American Factory
The Cave
For Sama
Honeyland
One Child Nation
Alternate: Maiden
I got 4/5 – missed The Edge of Democracy
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Fire in Paradise
Ghosts of Sugar Land
Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)
St. Louis Superman
Walk Run Cha-Cha
Alternate: Life Overtakes Me
I got 3/5 – missed In the Absence and Life Overtakes Me
ANIMATED SHORT
Dcera (Daughter)
Hair Love
Kitbull
The Physics of Sorrow
Sister
Alternate: Mind My Mind
I got 4/5 – missed Memorable
LIVE-ACTION SHORT
Brotherhood
Little Hands
Miller & Son
Nefta Football Club
Refugee
Alternate: The Christmas Gift
I got 2/5 – missed The Neighbor’s Widow, Saria, and A Sister