Tomorrow, 8 February 2022, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announces its nominees for the Oscars for the recent shortened year – 1 March through 31 December 2021. Because of the specific ways in which my mind is broken, I’m compelled once again to offer my predictions for the nominees in all 23 categories. And a very big thanks to our new contributors, Mandy Albert and Chris Trengove, for offering their picks as well!
TIM’S PREDICTIONS
Jump to Chris’s predictions (all categories) | Jump to Mandy’s predictions (Big Eight)
Best Picture
Being the Ricardos
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog
tick, tick… BOOM!
West Side Story
First alternate: Drive My Car
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Denis Villeneuve, Dune
First alternate: Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
Best Actor
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield, tick, tick… Boom!
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
First alternate: Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
Best Actress
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Jennifer Hudson, Respect
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
First alternate: Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Best Supporting Actor
Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza
Ciarán Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Jared Leto, House of Gucci
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
First alternate: Jamie Dornan, Belfast
Best Supporting Actress
Catriona Balfe, Belfast
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Ruth Negga, Passing
First alternate: Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley
Best Adapted Screenplay
CODA (Sian Heder)
Dune (Jon Spaihts and Denis Villeneuve)
The Lost Daughter (Maggie Gyllenhaal)
The Power of the Dog (Jane Campion)
West Side Story (Tony Kushner)
First alternate: Drive My Car (Ryusuke Hamaguchi)
Best Original Screenplay
Being the Ricardos (Aaron Sorkin)
Belfast (Kenneth Branagh)
Don’t Look Up (Adam McKay, David Sirota)
King Richard (Zach Baylin)
Licorice Pizza (Paul Thomas Anderson)
First alternate: Parallel Mothers (Pedro Almodóvar)
Best Cinematography
Belfast (Haris Zambarloukos)
Dune (Greig Fraser)
The Power of the Dog (Ari Wegner)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (Bruno Delbonnel)
West Side Story (Janusz Kamiński)
First alternate: Nightmare Alley (Dan Laustsen)
Best Costume Design
Cruella (Jenny Beavan)
Cyrano (Massimo Cantini Parrini, Jacqueline Durran)
Dune (Jacqueline West, Robert Morgan)
House of Gucci (Janty Yates)
West Side Story (Paul Tazewell)
First alternate: Spencer (Jacqueline Durran)
Best Editing
Belfast (Úna Ní Dhonghaíle)
Don’t Look Up (Hank Corwin)
Dune (Joe Walker)
No Time to Die (Tom Cross, Elliot Graham)
The Power of the Dog (Peter Sciberras)
First alternate: West Side Story (Michael Kahn, Sarah Broshar)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Coming 2 America
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
First alternate: The Suicide Squad
Best Production Design
Dune (Patrice Vermette, Richard Roberts, Zsuzsanna Sipos)
The French Dispatch (Adam Stockhausen, Rena DeAngelo)
The Green Knight (Jade Healy, Jenny Orman)
Nightmare Alley (Tamara Deverell, Shane Vieau)
West Side Story (Adam Stockhausen, Rena DeAngelo)
First alternate: The Tragedy of Macbeth (Stefan Dechant, Nancy Haigh)
Best Original Score
Don’t Look Up (Nicholas Britell)
Dune (Hans Zimmer)
Encanto
The French Dispatch (Alexandre Desplat)
The Power of the Dog (Jonny Greenwood)
First alternate: Parallel Mothers (Alberto Iglesias)
Best Original Song
From Belfast: “Down to Joy”
From Encanto: “Dos Oruguitas”
From King Richard: “Be Alive”
From No Time to Die: “No Time to Die”
From Respect: “Here I Am (Singing My Way Home)”
First alternate: From Brian Wilson: Long Promised Road: “Right Where I Belong”
Best Sound
Belfast
Dune
No Time to Die
Spider-Man: No Way Home
West Side Story
First alternate: The Power of the Dog
Best Visual Effects
Dune
Eternals
Free Guy
The Matrix Resurrections
Spider-Man: No Way Home
First alternate: Ghosbusters: Afterlife
Best International Feature Film
Compartment No. 6 (Finland)
Drive My Car (Japan)
Flee (Denmark)
The Hand of God (Italy)
A Hero (Iran)
First alternate: Plaza Catedral (Panama)
Best Documentary Feature
Ascension
Flee
Procession
The Rescue
Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
First alternate: Simple As Water
Best Documentary Short Subject
Audible
The Queen of Basketball
Terror Contagion
Three Songs for Benazir
When We Were Bullies
First alternate: A Broken House
Best Animated Feature
Belle
Encanto
Flee
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon
First alternate: Luca
Best Animated Short Film
The Musician
Robin Robin
Step into the River
Us Again
The Windshield Wiper
First alternate:Namoo
Best Live Action Short Film
Frimas
Les Grandes Claques
The Long Goodbye
Stenofonen
When the Sun Sets
First alternate: Under the Heavens
CHRIS’S PREDICTIONS – all categories
Jump to Tim’s predictions (all categories) | Jump to Mandy’s predictions (Big Eight)
Best Picture
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Denis Villeneuve, Dune
Best Actor
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
Andrew Garfield, tick, tick… BOOM!
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Best Actress
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Penélope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Best Supporting Actor
Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza
Ciarán Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Jared Leto, House of Gucci
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Best Supporting Actress
Catriona Balfe, Belfast
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Ruth Negga, Passing
Best Adapted Screenplay
CODA (Sian Heder)
Drive My Car (Ryusuke Hamaguchi)
Dune (Jon Spaihts and Denis Villeneuve)
The Lost Daughter (Maggie Gyllenhaal)
The Power of the Dog (Jane Campion)
Best Original Screenplay
Being the Ricardos (Aaron Sorkin)
Belfast (Kenneth Branagh)
Don’t Look Up (Adam McKay, David Sirota)
King Richard (Zach Baylin)
Licorice Pizza (Paul Thomas Anderson)
Best Cinematography
Belfast (Haris Zambarloukos)
Dune (Greig Fraser)
The Power of the Dog (Ari Wegner)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (Bruno Delbonnel)
West Side Story (Janusz Kamiński)
Best Costume Design
Cruella (Jenny Beavan)
Dune (Jacqueline West, Robert Morgan)
House of Gucci (Janty Yates)
Nightmare Alley (Luis Sequeira)
West Side Story (Paul Tazewell)
Best Editing
Belfast (Úna Ní Dhonghaíle)
Don’t Look Up (Hank Corwin)
Dune (Joe Walker)
Licorice Pizza (Andy Jurgensen)
The Power of the Dog (Peter Sciberras)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
The Suicide Squad
Best Production Design
Dune (Patrice Vermette, Richard Roberts, Zsuzsanna Sipos)
The French Dispatch (Adam Stockhausen, Rena DeAngelo)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (Stefan Dechant, Nancy Haigh)
Nightmare Alley (Tamara Deverell, Shane Vieau)
West Side Story (Adam Stockhausen, Rena DeAngelo)
Best Original Score
Don’t Look Up (Nicholas Britell)
Dune (Hans Zimmer)
Encanto (Germaine Franco)
The French Dispatch (Alexandre Desplat)
The Power of the Dog (Jonny Greenwood)
Best Original Song
From Belfast: “Down to Joy”
From Don’t Look Up: “Just Look Up”
From Encanto: “Dos Oruguitas”
From No Time to Die: “No Time to Die”
From Respect: “Here I Am (Singing My Way Home)”
Best Sound
Belfast
Dune
No Time to Die
A Quiet Place, Part II
West Side Story
Best Visual Effects
Dune
Godzilla vs Kong
The Matrix Resurrections
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Best International Feature Film
Drive My Car (Japan)
Flee (Denmark)
The Hand of God (Italy)
A Hero (Iran)
The Worst Person in the World (Norway)
Best Documentary Feature
Ascension
Flee
Procession
The Rescue
Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
Best Documentary Short Subject
Coded: The Hidden Love of J.C. Leyendecker
The Queen of Basketball
Terror Contagion
Three Songs for Benazir
When We Were Bullies
Best Animated Feature
Belle
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Best Animated Short Film
Affairs of the Art
Namoo
Robin Robin
Step into the River
Us Again
Best Live Action Short Film
The Censor of Dreams
The Criminals
The Long Goodbye
Tala’vision
When the Sun Sets
MANDY’S PREDICTIONS – “Big Eight” only
Jump to Tim’s predictions (all categories) | Jump to Chris’s predictions (all categories)
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: I am extremely bad at Oscar predictions. My finger is not on the pulse of the Academy; my finger does not occupy the same fold of spacetime as the pulse of the Academy. Merely by making these predictions, I have probably guaranteed that Space Jam 2: A New Legacy will be nominated for Best Picture. So take these with many grains of salt, and please act happily surprised if every single one of them turns out to be correct.
Best Picture
Being the Ricardos
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog
The Tender Bar
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Best Director
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Denis Villeneuve, Dune
Best Actor
Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Best Actress
Olivia Coleman, The Lost Daughter
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Best Supporting Actor
Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza
Mike Faist, West Side Story
Jesse Plemmons, The Power of the Dog
J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Best Supporting Actress
Caitriona Balfe, Belfast
Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Kathryn Hunter, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Ruth Negga, Passing
Best Adapted Screenplay
Drive My Car (Ryusuke Hamaguchi)
Dune (Jon Spaihts and Denis Villeneuve)
The Last Duel (Ben Affleck & Matt Damon & Nicole Holofcener)
The Power of the Dog (Jane Campion)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (Joel Coen)
Best Original Screenplay
Being the Ricardos (Aaron Sorkin)
Belfast (Kenneth Branagh)
Don’t Look Up (Adam McKay, David Sirota)
Licorice Pizza (Paul Thomas Anderson)
Parallel Mothers (Pedro Almodóvar)