With this morning’s Golden Globe nominations and the recent LA, NY, Boston and NBR critics’ awards, the end-of-year film award handicapping can begin in earnest.
I should point out that my interest in the Oscars is almost purely sporting. If anything, I view winning such an award as a mark against a film, although not so much so as if it were a Grammy (and don’t they blow extra hard this year?). Which never has and never will kept me from spending almost all of my time from December through February speculating on the nominees and winners.
Thoughts so far for this year:
-No Munich love from the Globes surprises the hell out of me, and puts me in fear for its Oscar chances.
-On the other hand, the Match Point love comes from fucking nowhere, and excites me, as I think for this film to get that kind of attention from the HPFA, there must be something pretty strong behind all the Cannes buzz.
–Brokeback Mountain is the clear front-runner, with all four critics’ groups giving it Best Picture. I’ll remind you that a year ago, The Aviator was the Oscar front-runner, and leave it at that.
Right now, my money says that the Best Picture Oscar nominees will be:
–Brokeback Mountain
–Good Night, and Good Luck.
–Match Point
–Munich
–Walk the Line
And Best Director:
-Woody Allen, Match Point
-George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck.
-Peter Jackson, King Kong
-Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
-Steven Spielberg, Munich
This will of course all change by the time of the actual announcments, and I’ll be posting about it at least once more before then, so consider yourself warned.