The tedious part first: how did I do on my predictions? Not terrible – a hell of a lot of 4/5 categories, in a weird and hard year. In the Big 8, I went 34/43 (79%), in the whole field excluding the short film categories I was a rather crappy 74/105 (71%) – Best Song murdered me, but who didn’t it murder? – and in all 24 I went 84/120, for a perfect 70%, to the last decimal point.
Thoughts on most races below.
Best Picture
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
My record: 6/8
Non-binding first prediction: Spotlight
Nothing surprising, though both Room and Brooklyn but no Carol in the great Race of the Women’s Pictures is so baffling that it almost makes me forget that I should be upset that Carol couldn’t make it in – as it is, I look at this list and I see many “just fine” pictures, not a single one of which I acutely dislike, but only one that really feels like it belongs in a “best of the year” conversation. Having two of those would be a nice boost.
Incidentally, I agree with the basic principle of #OscarsSoWhite and all, but I’m really glad that the deeply unimpressive Straight Outta Compton didn’t make it in. Now, if we want to talk about how weird it was that the magnificent Creed got no traction throughout the whole season…
Best Director
Lenny Abrahamson, Room
Alejandro González Iñárritu, The Revenant
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
Adam McKay, The Big Short
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
My record: 4/5
Non-binding first prediction: Tom McCarthy
The one and only legitimate shock of the morning: Ridley Scott out, Lenny Abrahamson in. And while I think the directing in Room is probably more of a liability than a strength, that seems like a mostly lateral trade, to me. This is still, much like picture, a matter of George Miller and a bunch of people I don’t like anywhere remotely near as much, though I do think that McCarthy’s work with actors is a lot more sophisticated than anything going on in the other three movies.
Best Actor
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Matt Damon, The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
My record: 5/5
Non-binding first prediction: Leonardo DiCaprio
A wasteland of a category all season, and surprise surprise, it’s a wasteland still. Now I have to see Trumbo, something I’ve been quietly hoping to avoid.
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
My record: 4/5
Non-binding first prediction: Brie Larson
I truly assumed the BAFTA shut-out had killed Rampling’s chances, and I’m beyond ecstatic to learn I was wrong. Joy now becomes the first viewing priority going forward, though it was already on the list.
Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed
My record: 4/5
Non-binding first prediction: Sylvester Stallone
Bale’s hardly my favorite member of the Big Short ensemble, and I might even call Ruffalo the weakest link in Spotlight. Hardy, when I finally saw the movie this week, impressed me with his warped anti-charisma; it’s a performance so fully terrible that it goes back around to the other side. But Stallone and Rylance, at least, are top-tier nominations.
Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
My record: 3/5
Non-binding first prediction: Rooney Mara
Both cases of category fraud went through, sadly (I assumed, with all my heart and soul, that Vikander had a better shot at a double nomination than getting in here for The Danish Girl), though it does have the effect of turning out a stronger set of five than I think would have shown up otherwise. To me, Leigh absolutely dwarfs the rest of this field.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Big Short (Adam McKay and Charles Randolph)
Brooklyn (Nick Hornby)
Carol (Phyllis Nagy)
The Martian (Drew Goddard)
Room (Emma Donoghue)
My record: 4/5
Non-binding first prediction: The Big Short
Ugh. Carol is the only thing here that I think belongs within sniffing distance of an award. No surprises, but even the relatively clumsy Steve Jobs (let alone Creed or Fury Road) would have raised the average up immeasurably.
Best Original Screenplay
Bridge of Spies (Matt Charman and Joel Coen & Ethan Coen)
Ex Machina (Alex Garland)
Inside Out (Josh Cooley, Pete Docter, & Meg LeFauve)
Spotlight (Tom McCarthy & Josh Singer)
Straight Outta Compton (Andrea Berloff, Jonathan Herman, S. Leigh Savidge, & Alan Wenkus)
My record: 4/5
Non-binding first prediction: Spotlight
Definitely the stronger screenplay slate, though not a one of them strikes me as an absolutely flawless piece of screenwriting the way Carol is.
Best Cinematography
Carol (Ed Lachman)
The Hateful Eight (Robert Richardson)
Mad Max: Fury Road (John Seale)
The Revenant (Emmanuel Lubezki)
Sicario (Roger Deakins)
My record: 4/5
Non-binding first prediction: The Revenant
How weird that Lubezki, one of the most notorious non-winners of the 2000s, has an excellent shot at being the first person to ever win three in a row in this (or any?) category? But I still think Deakins has his best chance of finally winning since True Grit. Be interesting to watch this one play out.
Best Editing
The Big Short (Hank Corwin)
Mad Max: Fury Road (Margaret Sixel)
The Revenant (Stephen Mirrione)
Spotlight (Tom McArdle)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Maryann Brandon and Mary Jo Markey)
My record: 4/5
Non-binding first prediction: The Revenant
My first and really only thought: isn’t the editing kind of like, conspicuously, the very worst thing about The Force Awakens?
Best Costume Design
Carol (Sandy Powell)
Cinderella (Sandy Powell)
The Danish Girl (Paco Delgado)
Mad Max: Fury Road (Jenny Beavan)
The Revenant (Jacqueline West)
My record: 4/5
Non-binding first prediction: Carol
Other than finding the costumes in The Danish Girl somewhat tacky, and in The Revenant somewhat boring, my biggest disappointment is this is the best category for a really left-field nomination, and I don’t think Cinderella fits the bill.
Best Production Design
Bridge of Spies (Adam Stockhausen / Rena DeAngelo, Bernhard Henrich)
The Danish Girl (Eve Stewart / Michael Standish)
Mad Max: Fury Road (Colin Gibson / Katie Sharrock, Lisa Thompson)
The Martian (Arthur Max / Celia Bobak, Zoltan Horvath)
The Revenant (Jack Fisk / Hamish Purdy)
My record: 4/5
Non-binding first prediction: The Martian
I love Jack Fisk, but seriously? That movie is like 90% trees.
Best Hair and Makeup
The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
My record: 1/3
Non-binding first prediction: The Revenant
A year and a quarter ago, when I laughed at the title of 100-Year-Old Man in the Chicago Film Festival catalogue and never thought about it again, I could not possibly have predicted this moment would come. Next priority after Joy.
Best Original Score
Bridge of Spies (Thomas Newman)
Carol (Carter Burwell)
The Hateful Eight (Ennio Morricone)
Sicario (Jóhann Jóhannson)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (John Williams)
My record: 4/5
Non-binding first prediction: The Hateful Eight
This is Carter Burwell’s first nomination. Isn’t that fucking ludicrous? Also, notwithstanding Newman’s film-crippling music and the worst score Williams has ever provided to a Star Wars, this is the best this category has been in years.
Best Original Song
From Fifty Shades of Grey: “Earned It”
From The Hunting Ground: “Til It Happens to You”
From Racing Extinction: “Manta Ray”
From Spectre: “Writing’s on the Wall”
From Youth: “Simple Song #3”
My record: 2/5
Non-binding first prediction: “Writing’s on the Wall”
What the fuck.
Best Sound Mixing
Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
My record: 3/5
Non-binding first prediction: Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Sound Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
My record: 3/5
Non-binding first prediction: Mad Max: Fury Road
The thing that jumped out at me the most about The Revenant, honestly: “what marvelous sound mixing”. So I can be happy with these categories.
Best Visual Effects
Ex Machina
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
My record: 4/5
Non-binding first prediction: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
I feel like something as small and story-driven as the VFX in Ex Machina getting in is literally without precedent, and I am thrilled. Same for The Revenant, actually, though the bear doesn’t look nearly as good as the robots in the former film.
Best Foreign Language Film
Embrace of the Serpent (Colombia)
Mustang (France)
Son of Saul (Hungary)
Theeb (Jordan)
A War (Denmark)
My record: 4/5
Non-binding first prediction: Son of Saul
I’ll bet that by the time I’ve seen all of these, I’ll be really annoyed that The Assassin didn’t make it to the nine-film shortlist.
Best Animated Feature
Anomalisa
Boy and the World
Inside Out
Shaun the Sheep
When Marnie Was There
My record: 3/5 (only predicted 4)
Non-binding first prediction: Inside Out
So much for my hunch that the eligibility list would shrink. Boy and the World making it in is the kind of Oscar morning miracle that we talk about without ever expecting to see it happen – best animated film of the year by far, and every one of you needs to track it down by any means necessary.
Best Documentary
Amy
Cartel Land
The Look of Silence
What Happened, Miss Simone?
Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom
My record: 4/5
Non-binding first prediction: Amy
I wasn’t prepared to predict The Look of Silence, just to stave off disappointment, and I am so freaking relieved it made it. Now maybe a win for Joshua Oppenheimer’s masterful diptych of psychic scarring in the wake of mass killing? Nah, never going to happen, but this is still nice.
Best Documentary Short
Body Team 12
Chau, Beyond the Lines
Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
Last Day of Freedom
My record: 1/5
Non-binding first prediction: Body Team 12
Best Animated Short
Bear Story (Historia de un oso)
Prologue
Sanjay’s Super Team
We Can’t Live Without Cosmos
World of Tomorrow
My record: 4/5
Non-binding first prediction: Sanjay’s Super Team
Best Live-Action Short
Ave Maria
Day One
Everything Will Be Okay (Alles wird gut)
Shok
Stutterer
My record: 5/5
Non-binding first prediction: Shok
How the actual hell did I go 5-for-5 in predicting a short film category?