And here we are, with the Oscars are coming this very weekend. Gawk in wonder as three very different people all agree that La La Land will win absolutely no fewer than 8 awards, though we are bitterly divided on just how it will subdivide the sound categories.
BEST PICTURE
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Tim Says-
Will win: La La Land
Should win: La La Land
Shoulda been here: Jackie
So step #1, don’t overthink things. La La Land takes it in a walk, as the capstone the best Oscar night a movie has had since either Slumdog Millionaire in 2008 (won 8) or The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (won 11, a number that La La Land almost certainly will not pass, and is extremely unlikely to tie).
Carrie Says-
Will win: La La Land
Should win: La La Land
Shoulda been here: Captain Fantastic
Movies of this genre are mostly, if not entirely, absent from any of my favorite movie lists. The fact that La La Land could be both a musical and my favorite movie of the year means that it MUST be something special. I’m always a sucker for a good “follow-your-dreams” flick and this one left me with all the feels, and Ryan Gosling, always Ryan Gosling.
Rob Says-
Will win: La La Land
Should win: La La Land
I think it is now a forgone conclusion, but few movies are as ambitious in giving Hollywood and critcs what something to salivate over while still being able to put up solid box office numbers. I’ll admit, I haven’t seen Fences, but I don’t think any other movie stands a chance. That being said, if I had to pick one movie to watch repeatedly, it would be Hell or High Water.
BEST DIRECTOR
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Tim Says-
Will win: Damien Chazelle
Should win: Damien Chazelle
Shoulda been here: Yorgos Lanthimos, The Lobster
To predict a Director/Picture split, you need to see something extraordinary going in the conversation around the movies. Nothing extraordinary is going on here.
Carrie Says-
Will win: Damien Chazelle
Should win: Damien Chazelle
Shoulda been here: Matt Ross, Captain Fantastic
It seems like to orchestrate so many things into one movie: romance, musical, dance, drama, etc. should win you something.
Rob Says-
Will win: Damien Chazelle
Should win: Damien Chazelle
When I read the synopsis of this movie in January 2016, I had my reservations for Chazelle to pull off a modern musical I would enjoy seeing. Boy was I proven wrong. Balancing nods to movies that came before it, plus some amazing camera wizardry put him at the top of this class.
BEST ACTOR
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences
Tim Says-
Will win: Denzel Washington
Should win: Casey Affleck
Shoulda been here: Peter Simonischek, Toni Erdmann
It’s quite possibly the best performance of Washington’s career, plus he lacks Affleck’s sexual harassment (while possessing a small amount of baggage all his own). That being said, it’s the best performance of Affleck’s career also, and he’s astoundingly subtle in ways that only Mortensen’s performance, of the other four, is even aware exists.
Carrie Says-
Will win: Casey Affleck
Should win: Denzel Washington
I’m a little tempted to say Denzel, but because I only saw the preview of Fences (it was a great preview), I’m going to go with Casey Affleck. His performance was moving and awesome, even though I get the weird impression that’s sort of how he talks and is in real life, but whatever.
Rob Says-
Will win: Casey Affleck
Should win: Denzel Washington
No knock against Casey Affleck, but I still maintain the non-emoting quality is too much Casey Affleck, being Casey Affleck, I’m not sure how much of a stretch it was for him. It is still an amazing and moving performance, especially the scene between him and Michelle Williams. I stick with Denzel on the “Should win” based solely of what I’ve seen in trailers.
BEST ACTRESS
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Tim Says-
Will win: Emma Stone
Should win: Isabelle Huppert
Shoulda been here: Kate Beckinsale, Love & Friendship
There was a time, as recently as December, when I would have sad that Portman had an insurmountable lead. An actress that nobody in the world seems to dislike, perfectly imitating one of the most famous human beings in the history of celebrity, and the critics were giving them all the artistic cover they could possibly need? Get outta here. But then Jackie kept tanking its way through awards season, and arrives with a rather meek set of three nominations that don’t suggest they liked it very much, or necessarily even saw it. Stone, of course, has the whole “ingenue we like in a movie we adore” thing going on, and I see only the slightest bumps in her road to victory. Would be curious to have seen the campaign if Amy Adams had actually swung the nomination.
Carrie Says-
Will win: Meryl Streep
Should win: Meryl Streep
Meryl always wins, right? That’s why I’m picking her.
Rob Says-
Will win: Emma Stone
Should win: Natalie Portman
Jackie is another movie I haven’t seen, but I’ve seen enough to make me wonder if Natalie can throw a wrench in the unstoppable machine that is La La Land.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
Tim Says-
Will win: Mahershala Ali
Should win: Lucas Hedges
Shoulda been here: Alden Ehrenrich, Hail, Caesar!
It’s not the “worst” acting category – Supporting Actress plunges off a cliff past the big two – but it’s the most irritating: two leading roles in Bridges and Patel, nowhere near the best supporting male performance in their film in the case of Ali and Bridges again, and while Shannon was superb, I hate that he made Nocturnal Animals into an Oscar-nominated film. Anyway, this one is easy as hell – both of the supporting categories are, really.
Carrie Says-
Will win: Mahershala Ali
Should win: Jeff Bridges
This one was tough, a lot of great ones in this category. Did I say Mahershala Ali? I meant, Jeff Bridges, no, Mahershala Ali. Can I call it a tie? Ok.
Rob Says-
Will win: Mahershala Ali
Should win: Jeff Bridges
I know Jeff Bridges is playing a variation of character that he’s done before, but I can’t help but like it
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Tim Says-
Will win: Viola Davis
Should win: Hair’s breadth between Davis and Michelle Williams
Shoulda been here: Janelle Monáe, Hidden Figures
Kidman’s wig should have been alone disqualifying, and I remain silently pissed that Monáe was overlooked by co-stars playing smudgy cartoons in two different movies. But Davis is really as monumentally good as all that, and you have to love when a well-deserved make-up award is also given for a work that’s this legitimately tremendous. Unlike Washington, I don’t think it’s her career-best work, but it’s fucking close.
Carrie Says-
Will win: Viola Davis
Should win: Viola Davis
So, despite not seeing this movie (I mentioned I saw the preview, right?), I just know Viola is going to win. She’s awesome and I love her.
Rob Says-
Will win: Viola Davis
Should win: Tie between Viola Davis and Michelle Williams
This is like trying to pick someone for the baseball hall of fame. Do you reward a great performance present through the entirety of a movie, or an extraordinary performance in a few scenes? Again, still haven’t seen Fences and I will, so my opinion might change once I’m better informed.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Arrival (Eric Heisserer)
Fences (August Wilson)
Hidden Figures (Allison Schroeder, Theodore Melfi)
Lion (Luke Davies)
Moonlight (Barry Jenkins, Tarell McCraney)
Tim Says-
Will win: Moonlight
Should win: Arrival
Shoulda been here: Love & Friendship (Whit Stillman)
As usual, the screenplay categories will be skewing “artier” than Best Picture, particularly in this case, where it’s the only chance to give an award to Moonlight itself and Jenkins. I adore the text of Fences, but are we really calling “reformatting a play” the same thing as “adaptation” nowadays?
Carrie Says-
Will win: Fences
Should win: Fences
I’m guessing, but I feel really, really good about it.
Rob Says-
Will win: Moonlight
Should win: Arrival
From what I understand, Moonlight is fairly representative of its original source. Arrival on the other hand shows a greater degree of adaptation difficulty.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
20th Century Women (Mike Mills)
Hell or High Water (Taylor Sheridan)
La La Land (Damien Chazelle)
The Lobster (Efthymis Filippou, Yorgos Lanthimos)
Manchester by the Sea (Kenneth Lonergan)
Tim Says-
Will win: Manchester by the Sea
Should win: The Lobster
Shoulda been here: Kubo and the Two Strings (Marc Haimes, Chris Butler, Sharon Tindle)
Part of me does wonder if they actually love La La Land that much, but I think the “artier” argument really comes into play here. And even more so given that Manchester probably isn’t winning anything else.
Carrie Says-
Will win: Manchester by the Sea
Should win: Manchester by the Sea
It should win for something, it was really a great movie. And, that scene with Michelle Williams and Casey Affleck where they confront each other about the past, should just win everything. “Best Scene” category.
Rob Says-
Will win: Manchester by the Sea
Should win: Manchester by the Sea
While the idea itself isn’t the most original, the writing and dialogue is phenomenal.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Arrival (Bradford Young)
La La Land (Linus Sandgren)
Lion (Greig Fraser)
Moonlight (James Laxton)
Silence (Rodrigo Prieto)
Tim Says-
Will win: La La Land
Should win: Lion
Shoulda been here: Knight of Cups (Emmanuel Lubezki)
Young and Fraser, maybe the two best newer cinematographers out there, would make for unbelievably gratifying winners (though maybe not Young for this exact film), but La La Land is certainly the most colorful, and, y’know, they do like pretty colors, the Academy.
Carrie Says-
Will win: La La Land
Should win: La La Land
I googled the definition of this and it says that it’s “the art of making motion pictures,” so if this is truly just the making of all the pieces of a great film, then it has to be La La Land! [Tim pops in to note: actually, it means motion photography. I’m guessing that definition takes “motion pictures” at its most stubbornly literal].
Rob Says-
Will win: La La Land
Should win: La La Land
I can’t speak to Silence (pun intended), but La La Land was gorgeous to look at.
BEST EDITING
Arrival (Joe Walker)
Hacksaw Ridge (John Gilbert)
Hell or High Water (Jake Roberts)
La La Land (Tom Cross)
Moonlight (Joi McMillion, Nat Sanders)
Tim Says-
Will win: La La Land
Should win: Hacksaw Ridge
Shoulda been here: Elle (Job ter Burg)
Not a terribly inspiring display of cutting, frankly – it usually isn’t – though only Hell or High Water strikes me as a real “what are you going on about?” nomination. Anyway, easy as pie: go with Best Picture unless you have a damned compelling reason not to.
Carrie Says-
Will win: La La Land
Should win: La La Land
Gah! I feel bad that I’m putting this movie for everything. It just seems like the most complex and best edited.
Rob Says-
Will win: La La Land
Should win: Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land was done well, but you have to give it to Hacksaw Ridge for all of its complicated battle scenses.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Allied (Joanna Johnston)
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Colleen Atwood)
Florence Foster Jenkins (Consolata Boyle)
Jackie (Madeline Fontaine)
La La Land (Mary Zophres)
Tim Says-
Will win: Florence Foster Jenkins
Should win: I haven’t seen all of the nominees
Shoulda been here: The Handmaiden (Jo Sang-gyeon)
Oh, this one’s tough. I mean, so the only question is the scale of the La La Land juggernaut, and there’s no denying that a huge part of what makes it so visually appealing is the bright, joyful litany of primary colors making up so many of the costumes, especially in the early going. On the other hand, the clothes are plain enough to look like they came off the rack, which is 100% not what the Oscars ever want to see in this category. And you know what FFJ has? It is has gowns. It has tons of fucking gowns. It is Gown City, U.S.A. I have not yet seen Allied, but I do not imagine that its gowns could possibly compete with the utter gownage of Florence Foster Jenkins.
Carrie Says-
Will win: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
I feel like “world-creating” movies should always win these things. I’m going to be ticked when Jackie wins, but I’m throwing my money on FBAWTFT, because the entire cast is transformed to be a part of this flick.
Rob Says-
Will win: Florence Foster Jenkins
I haven’t seen a lot of these, but my money is always on period pieces.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Arrival (Patrice Vermette; Paul Hotte)
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Stuart Craig, James Hambige; Anna Pinnock)
Hail, Caesar! (Jess Gonchor; Nancy Haigh)
La La Land (David Wasco; Sandy Reynolds-Wasco)
Passengers (Guy Hendrix Dyas; Gene Serdena)
Tim Says-
Will win: La La Land
Should win: Hail, Caesar!
Shoulda been here: High-Rise (Mark Tildesley; Paki Smith)
I’d be hard-pressed to name a single set that isn’t interesting mostly because of the location scout, but I can’t quite come up with a reason for La La Land to lose, even despite its conspicuous lack of flash. Passengers and Hail, Caesar! are obviously also-rans, and Fantastic Beasts feels, for better or worse, like just some more of that Harry Potter thing that they never gave this award to despite nominating it four times. It is, to be fair, one of only two awards Arrival has of winning, but Arrival has, like, three sets. Surely they won’t like that.
Carrie Says-
Will win: La La Land
Should win: La La Land
Just because.
Rob Says-
Will win: La La Land
Should win: Hail, Caesar!
Holy crap the set pieces were amazing in Hail, Caesar!!
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond
Suicide Squad
Tim Says-
Will win: Star Trek Beyond
Should win: Star Trek Beyond
Shoulda been here: Jackie, or any one of dozens of films better than 6/7ths of the qualifying longlist
Doesn’t it kind of seem like they just really wanted Star Trek to win, so they made sure to surround it with shitty nominees that didn’t have a chance in hell?
Also: “Oscar Nominee Suicide Squad“. You do you, Best Makeup and Hairstyling. You do you.
Carrie Says-
Will win: A Man Called Ove
Should win: Star Trek Beyond
While I don’t think transforming somebody to look old is anything awesome and crazy, I think it’s more awesome then the other options.
Rob Says-
Will win: Star Trek Beyond
Should win: Star Trek Beyond
If I have to pick from these options, it is an obvious choice.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Jackie (Mica Levi)
La La Land (Justin Hurwitz)
Lion (Dustin O’Halloran and Hauschka)
Moonlight (Nicholas Britell)
Passengers (Thomas Newman)
Tim Says-
Will win: La La Land
Should win: Jackie
Shoulda been here: Kubo and the Two Strings (Dario Marianelli)
The Best Picture frontrunner is a musical. This isn’t rocket science.
Carrie Says-
Will win: La La Land
Should win: La La Land
Loved the music and it’s the tunes I remember most from all the movies that are up for it!
Rob Says-
Will win: La La Land
Should win: La La Land
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
From Jim: The James Foley Story: “The Empty Chair”
From La La Land: “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)”
From La La Land: “City of Stars”
From Moana: “How Far I’ll Go”
From Trolls: “Can’t Stop the Feeling!”
Tim Says-
Will win: “City of Stars”
Should win: “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)”
Shoulda been here: “Get Back Up Again”, from Trolls
Damned impressive that they have three full-on musicals, and in every case they failed to nominate its best song (besides “Get Back Up Again”, there’s “We Know the Way” from Moana and “Another Day of Sun” from La La Land, which wasn’t even submitted for consideration). Anyway, it’s not the worst year in recent memory for this trash category. Looks like Lin-Manuel Miranda has to wait till later on that EGOT.
Also, some grad student friends and I were talking about it, and agreed that Jim: The James Foley Story is a uniquely awful title for a movie.
Carrie Says-
Will win: “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)”
Should win: “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)”
Just perfection. I just clutched my face through the whole song. Here’s to the one’s who dream, foolish as they may seem!
Rob Says-
Will win: “City of Stars”
Should win: “How Far I’ll Go”
Shoulda been here: “Drive It Like You Stole It”, Sing Street; “We Know the Way”, Moana; every other song from Sing Street and most from Moana
This is one where I’m just going to be angry about. Not only will La La Land win, it will win for the wrong song since I think “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” was much better musically and lyrically. That being said, I preferred most of the songs from Sing Street and Moana. What can I say, I love the 80’s and I have kids respectively.
BEST SOUND MIXING
13 Hours
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Tim Says-
Will win: La La Land
Should win: 13 Hours
Shoulda been here: Silence
13 Hours has my favorite overall sound design of 2016, so I was real happy to see it sneak in here. Even though “Oscar Nominee 13 Hours” is only a hair less baffling and sad than “Oscar Nominee Suicide Squad“.
Anyway, you don’t ever predict against the musical in this category. When the musical is going to win Best Picture, you definitely don’t predict against it. Not even when the most salient quality of that musical’s sound mix is how astonishingly terrible it is during the all-important opening musical number.
Carrie Says-
Will win: 13 Hours
Should win: La La Land
I’m seriously only choosing this because I feel bad choosing La La Land again.
Rob Says-
Will win: La La Land
Should win: Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Rogue One, to me, had a higher degree of difficulty than La La Land.
BEST SOUND EDITING
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Sully
Tim Says-
Will win: Hacksaw Ridge
Should win: Sully
Shoulda been here: 13 Hours
This is the best chance for two of the Best Picture nominees to avoid going home empty-handed; for Hacksaw Ridge, it is very likely the only chance. And war movies are to this category as musicals are to Sound Mixing. That being said, the impulse to just check off La La Land twice will surely be present. I have to assume that if does win this, it’s on it’s way to a record-setting 12 Oscars off of its record-tying 14 nominations (it can, in principle, only win once for Best Original Song, and I cannot imagine that Ryan Gosling has even the smallest prayer of winning Best Actor).
Carrie Says-
Will win: La La Land
Should win: Hacksaw Ridge
So, I turned on the La La Land soundtrack on as I’ve been filling this out and my anxiety about choosing it for so many categories. And, confirmed, it’s still awesome.
Rob Says-
Will win: Hacksaw Ridge
Should win: Hacksaw Ridge
Sticking with the same pick as Editing has worked out well for me in the past.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Tim Says-
Will win: The Jungle Book
Should win: The Jungle Book
Shoulda been here: That’s actually a pretty unimpeachable list.
No such thing as a wrong choice in this, the night’s most perfect slate of nominees, and among the most perfect slates in this category’s history. That being said, The Jungle Book was some next-level shit.
Carrie Says-
Will win: The Jungle Book
Should win: The Jungle Book
This movie was pretty epic from a creating a world that you actually believe are real, touchable, interactive animals. I thought it was great!
Rob Says-
Will win: The Jungle Book
Should win: The Jungle Book
Holy crap! How’d they do that?!
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Land of Mine (Denmark)
A Man Called Ove (Sweden)
The Salesman (Iran)
Tanna (Australia)
Toni Erdmann(Germany)
Tim Says-
Will win: The Salesman
Should win: Toni Erdmann
Shoulda been here: Neruda, followed very closely by Elle
It really does feel like politics are going to carry it; possibly there is an undercurrent of “this will be our Good Deed and then we can go back to giving new awards to give to La La Land“. That Toni Erdmann would be only the fourth movie directed by a woman to win this category is apparently not the cool kind of politics. That it is the year’s best live-action film is apparently not cool at all.
Carrie Says-
Will win: A Man Called Ove
Should win: A Man Called Ove
I’m going to go out on a limb and put A Man Called Ove, because I LOVED the book.
Rob Says-
Will win: The Salesman
Should win: Toni Erdmann
The immigration ban has caused so much outrage, I think The Salesman will eek it out and win over viewers to create a stage for this very relevant issue. That being said, not saying The Salesman isn’t deserving in it’s own right, but Toni Erdmann was a shoe-in from everything I read prior the everything unfolding. They’re even remaking it with Jack Nicholson to star, so Hollywood certainly took notice.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia
Tim Says-
Will win: Zootopia
Should win: Technically, I shouldn’t say, since I haven’t seen all five, but for God’s sake, obviously The Red Turtle. I won’t be a tiny bit sad if Kubo pulls it out.
Shoulda been here: April and the Extraordinary World, and probably Your Name, which I haven’t yet seen
With much higher box officer and fractionally stronger reviews, Zootopia clearly beats Moana for the Disney vote, and the obscure foreign films probably split the vote (and they probably also, combined, get less than half of the votes of any of the other three). That makes it a tug of war between the vocally passionate Laika fanbase – they have to win sometime – and the people who only saw Zootopia and Moana, as well as the people who, for terrible reasons of their own, think Zootopia is somehow better than Kubo. I think it is very clear which of these groups is larger.
Carrie Says-
Will win: The Red Turtle
Should win: Zootopia
I’m picking this purely based off Tim’s movie review. He’s always right.
(P.S. I loved Moana).
Rob Says-
Will win: Zootopia
Should win: Moana
I haven’t seen The Red Turtle, but I know Tim’s taste and mine diverge a bit when it comes to animated films. Zootopia was fun and the social political messages are great, but Moana featured female empowerment without the need of a love story, better music and actors / actresses representative of the culture put on-screen.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
13th
Fire at Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
O.J.: Made in America
Tim Says-
Will win: O.J.: Made in America
Should win: 13th
Shoulda been here: Cameraperson
IT’S A FUCKING TV MINISERIES.
Carrie Says-
Will win: Life, Animated
Should win: OJ: Made in America
Shoulda been here: Gleason
This is the only one of the documentary features that I caught this year and I thought it was great! While my favorite of the year in this category was Gleason, I’ll concede this as a close second. An important message about how we all have a purpose, even if the path is different.
Rob Says-
Will win: O.J.; Made in America
Should win: 13th
Shoulda been here: Gleason
I still don’t understand how O.J. qualified, but I won’t spend my time on that. Of the nominees, 13th was far and away more interesting and compelling, but for the ones I’ve seen, none hold a candle to how moved I was by Gleason.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
4.1 Miles
Extremis
Joe’s Violin
Watani: My Homeland
The White Helmets
Tim Says-
Will win: Joe’s Violin
Should win: 4.1 Miles
Dammit, this one’s always hard when you haven’t seen the nominees, as I haven’t yet (but shall be doing before the awards). This category, much more so than Live Action Short, actually works really well if you just pick the logline that sounds most depressing and capital-I Important, but what the hell do you do when that’s The Film About Syria, and then you have two films about Syria? Do Watani and The White Helmets split the vote? In which case I assume that Joe’s Violin, about a 91-year-old Holocaust survivor, takes it. I also wonder if I’m over-thinking it, and “91-year-old Holocaust survivor” is literally all you need to know.
UPDATE: Having seen all the films, I’m sticking with Joe’s Violin. It and Watani are the only ones that don’t make you feel like utter crap at the end, and Watani is going to have vote siphoning from The White Helmets and 4.1 Miles.
Carrie Says-
Will win: The White Helmets
I’m guessing. It feels like a bad guess, but I’m still going with it.
Rob Says-
Will win: Extremis
I have no idea. Guessing based on the one I’ve heard of.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Pear Cider and Cigarettes
Pearl
Piper
Tim Says-
Will win: Piper
Should win: Piper
It’s a rare year, in that Live Action Short is the stronger category. Frankly, I see virtually no value in either Pearl or Pear Cider, and the latter is nothing like this category prefers to reward. Pearl is I think being screened to voters in its native VR format, and perhaps that pushes it over: it would be the first time in ages that my least-favorite nominee won, and I miss the days when that reliably happened year after year. Pixar almost never scores here, which argues against Piper, but then Pixar doesn’t have a feature film up in the other category. I can’t see Borrowed Time winning against the aesthetically similar and much more adorable Piper, and as for Blind Vaysha, stylistic experimentation is much likelier to hurt than help in this category in recent decades.
Carrie Says-
Will win: Blind Vaysha
I literally have no idea.
Rob Says-
Will win: Piper
Only one I’ve seen and as always, Pixar creates an adorable little story
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
Ennemis intérieurs
La femme et le TGV
Silent Nights
Sing
Timecode
Tim Says-
Will win: Sing
Should win: Timecode
Beastly hard. La femme et le TGV is the movie that will make old people (this category’s voting base, among all categories) feel nice, but Sing will make them feel even nicer if they have grandchildren. So do those maybe split the “feels nice” vote, letting the politically on-point Ennemis intérieurs slid through? I doubt it – La femme et le TGV is an industrial-strength crowdpleaser, and it has the category’s big “name”, which never hurts (not that Jane Birkin is a superstar, but still…). But this is the one category where I can see a strong argument for each and every one of the nominees winning.
UPDATE: Such a strong argument that I’ve changed my mind – moved it over to Sing. Also an industrial-strength crowdpleaser, and it is clearly the better-made film.
Carrie Says-
Will win: La femme et le TGV
French films always have a better chance, right? I’m sorry, Tim.
Rob Says-
Will win: Timecode
Of the three I can pronounce, this one reminds me the most of Timecop with Jean Claude Van Damme. Again, I have no idea.