The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announces its nominees for its annual awards this coming Tuesday, and so it’s time for the annual game of trying to play telepath and tea-leaf reader. Pretty much everybody agrees that this has been an unusually baffling year for awards prognosticating, which comes from a couple places, I think: one is that there were no capital-G Great films to come out of the English-language film industries this year, the other is that there was a perplexing drought of obviously-on-paper Oscarbait: Battle of the Sexes, The Post, Darkest Hour… Victoria & Abdul… and maybe All the Money in the World, and that’s about it? Not a list to inspire much in the way of passion, either. Anyway, here are my predictions, along with my general confidence levels, and some of my reasoning.
Picture
Call Me by Your Name
Dunkirk
The Florida Project
Get Out
I, Tonya
Lady Bird
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
(I’m officially only predicting these nine, but if there’s a tenth, I would expect it to be The Big Sick)
If it was still 2008, and there were only five nominees, they’d be mindlessly easy to predict: Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, Shape of Water, Three Billboards. It immediately gets confusing after that, and you start to need to weigh things like passion, which is why I feel good about Call Me by Your Name and The Florida Project, and even I, Tonya, which I think was the big Hot New Thing at exactly the right point in voting. As for The Post, it seems too good on paper to possibly overlook it, though I cannot point to any logical reason why I think that, and if it drops down to eight, that’s the one I’d expect to lose out first. Confidence: Medium
Director
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Alt: Steven Spielberg, The Post
It never makes sense to copy-paste the Director’s Guild list of nominees, and I certainly understand the logic that Sean Baker is a good bet for The Florida Project, but then you have to ask the question: who does he replace? It seems pretty evident that Gerwig is in fifth place here, and I have to question whether there exists a sizable portion of people who would vote for Baker over Gerwig, and I simply cannot imagine that there are. Otherwise, I think Spielberg is the only significant threat for a nomination, and my instinct is to predict a pretty light nomination haul for The Post overall. Confidence: Medium-high
Actor
Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Alt: Denzel Washington, Roman Israel, Esq.
This one comes down to one question: did the sexual assault allegations against Franco come out early enough to ruin his chances at a nomination? I propose that they did not. Confidence: High
Actress
Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Alt: Meryl Streep, The Post
So as mentioned, I’m predicting a poor showing for The Post, but could it conceivably be this poor? Streep missing out at SAG tells me “maybe”, though it’s one of the most obvious gambles I’m taking in any of these categories. Confidence: Medium
Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Alt: Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
This one seems pretty well locked-in across the board; Call Me by Your Name has obviously lost too much broad support to swing the double nomination. Confidence: High
Supporting Actress
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Hong Chau, Downsizing
Alison Janney, I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
Alt: Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
Janney and Metcalf are rock-solid locks, and the rest is a cluster of six women for three slots. Chau is the obvious weak link in my predictions, but there are equally strong arguments against Hunter, Lesley Manville, and especially Tiffany Haddish, so I’m sticking with the overall vibe of the season, even though the tide is certainly tending towards Hunter. I’m predicting a strong nomination haul for The Shape of Water, but this is definitely one of its weakest categories. Confidence: Medium
Adapted Screenplay
Call Me by Your Name (James Ivory)
The Disaster Artist (Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber)
Molly’s Game (Aaron Sorkin)
Mudbound (Dee Rees, Virgil Williams)
Wonder (Stephen Chbosky)
Alt: Logan (Scott Frank, James Mangold, Michael Green)
The first four are set, and then it comes down to several film that seemingly cannot possibly be nominated for the last spot. Wonder is a huge crowd-pleaser and a much bigger than anticipated hit, which is enough for me to make this prediction, but it’s pretty much “throw a dart” between that, Logan, The Lost City of Z, Wonder Woman, and Victoria & Abdul. Confidence: Low
Original Screenplay
The Big Sick (Emily V. Gordon, Kumail Nanjiani)
Get Out (Jordan Peele)
Lady Bird (Greta Gerwig)
The Shape of Water (Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor)
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Martin McDonagh)
Alt: I, Tonya (Steven Rogers)
Another one where The Shape of Water needs to over-perform to make it in, but right now, I feel like that film is in the pole position to win Best Picture, and I can hardly assume that if I don’t predict it here. Confidence: Medium-high
Cinematography
Blade Runner 2049 (Roger Deakins)
Darkest Hour (Bruno Delbonnel)
Dunkirk (Hoyte van Hoytema)
Mudbound (Rachel Morrison)
The Shape of Water (Dan Laustsen)
Alt: The Post (Janusz Kamiński)
A straight port of the ASC list, which doesn’t typically happen, but I’m damned if I can figure out which one to cut. Confidence: High
Costume Design
Beauty and the Beast (Jacqueline Durran)
The Greatest Showman (Ellen Mirojnick)
I, Tonya (Jennifer Johnson)
Phantom Thread (Mark Bridges)
The Shape of Water (Luis Sequeira)
Alt: Darkest Hour (Jacqueline Durran)
So, I’m predicting a general late-breaking wave of support for The Greatest Showman, which is quietly having one of the most impressive box-office runs of the 21st Century. Also, I don’t want to pull the trigger on two nominations for Durran. Still, this is me being rather clever, and there are at least two other very strong fantasy possibilities in Wonder Woman and Blade Runner 2049. Confidence: Low
Editing
Dunkirk (Lee Smith)
Get Out (Gregory Plotkin)
I, Tonya (Tatiana S. Riegel)
The Shape of Water (Sidney Wolinsky)
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Jon Gregory)
Alt: Baby Driver (Jonathan Amos, Paul Machliss)
The usual game of picking the Best Picture frontunners, with the proviso that Lady Bird seems impossible here. Baby Driver is at least as likely as three of the five I’ve named, but I’m not sure which one to cut. Confidence: Medium
Production Design
Beauty and the Beast (Sarah Greenwood / Katie Spencer)
Blade Runner 2049 (Dennis Gassner / Alessandro Querzola)
Dunkirk (Nathan Crowley / Gary Fettis, Emmanuel Dells)
The Greatest Showman (Nathan Crowley / Debra Schutt)
The Shape of Water (Paul D. Austerberry / Jeffrey A. Melvin, Shane Vieau)
Alt: Darkest Hour (Sarah Greenwood . Katie Spencer)
I couldn’t bring myself to predict both Crowley and Greenwood for double nominations, and as mentioned, I’m feeling bullish on The Greatest Showman. Not mention, bearish on The Post, though that seems like a good fit here. Confidence: Medium-low
Makeup
Bright
Darkest Hour
Wonder
Alt: Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2
When there’s a chance to nominate a truly dreadful film, this category seems to leap at it, hence Bright. Honestly, though, after Darkest Hour, there are no obvious picks here, though of the seven-film bake-off list, I cannot imagine how Ghost in the Shell makes it to the nomination stage. Confidence: Medium
Original Score
Darkest Hour (Dario Marianelli)
Dunkirk (Hans Zimmer)
The Post (John Williams)
The Shape of Water (Alexandre Desplat)
Star Wars: The Last Jedi (John Williams)
Alt: Phantom Thread (Johnny Greenwood)
I concede that picking both Williams scores is at least somewhat cynical, and if you’re playing along for your office pool or some such, sub in Greenwood for The Last Jedi. Confidence: Medium
Original Song
From Call Me by Your Name: “Mystery of Love”
From Chasing Coral: “Tell Me How Long”
From Coco: “Remember Me”
From The Greatest Showman: “This Is Me”
From Marshall: “Stand Up for Something”
Alt: From Mudbound: “Mighty River”
Boy, do I hate this category. Confidence: Low
Sound Mixing
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
The Greatest Showman
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Alt: Blade Runner 2049
Musicals do well here, and I’m going to suggest that Baby Driver is so close to a musical that it counts. This is the sound category I’m definitely less confident about. Confidence: Low
Sound Editing
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Wonder Woman
Alt: Blade Runner 2049
Oh dear, I seem to have gotten clever with the sound categories, which is always a terrible strategy. The gap between Baby Driver, Blade Runner 2049, and Wonder Woman is a very thin one, but the last film is basically a war picture. Confidence: Medium-low
Visual Effects
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes
Alt: Okja
The one place I should predict The Shape of Water and I’m not; I think it’s potentially going to run aground on the question where the lines between costume design and VFX are, and Kris Tapley has claimed that it didn’t go over very well at the special screening where the effects branch votes. Confidence: High
Foreign Language Feature
A Fantastic Woman (Chile)
Foxtrot (Israel)
In the Fade (Germany)
Loveless (Russia)
The Square (Sweden)
Alt: The Insult (Lebanon)
After In the Fade, this gets muddy fast; nothing I’ve heard tells me The Wound makes it in, but any of the other eight films on the shortlist seem plausible. I don’t like how much this list feels like it lacks anything particularly obscure (I guess maybe Foxtrot?), but Hungary’s On Body and Soul seems too odd, and Senegal’s Félicité seems to have been forgotten. Confidence: Medium-high
Animated Feature
The Breadwinner
Coco
Despicable Me 3
The Lego Batman Movie
Loving Vincent
Alt: The Boss Baby
Major shift to the way this category is voted on this year: now it’s open to anybody who wants to. This will have, I suspect, a clear and dramatic impact on the balance of more artful, indie, foreign animation to big studio blockbusters, and it will be an impact for the worse. That being said, Loving Vincent has benefited from a good “admire our tech!” campaign, and The Breadwinner is GKIDS’ biggest play, so those seem safe; the other three spots are then choosing which films seem to be the best cross between “popular” and “well-made”. Coco‘s a lock to win, let alone to be nominated, and Despicable Me 3 made so much more money than everything else, that I feel it must be pretty safe; it’s then a question of which film between The Boss Baby, Captain Underpants, Ferdinand, and The Lego Batman Movie will make the voters feel best about themselves. Under the previous rules, I’d expect Mary and the Witch’s Flower to have an excellent chance, so keep that in mind. Confidence: Medium-high
Documentary Feature
City of Ghosts
Faces Places
Icarus
Jane
Strong Island
Alt: Last Men in Aleppo
One of the unheralded truths about this category: it is very, very unusual for previous winners to receive subsequent nominations, which argues against LA 92 and sort of An Inconvenient Sequel. It’s also apparently impossible for Steve James to get nominations, which argues against Abacus: Small Enough to Jail. The rest is mostly a mixture of what seems timely, though Jane has been wildly popular with critics, and I refuse to doubt that Agnès Varda will show up. Confidence: Medium
Documentary Short
116 Cameras
Alone
Edith+Eddie
Heroine(e)
Kayayo: The Living Shopping Baskets
Alt: Traffic Stop
This tends to be the short film category where guessing based on which logline sounds the most Important and Serious works out the best; Kayayo is probably the biggest reach here on that front. Confidence: Medium-High
Animated Short
Cradle
Dear Basketball
In a Heartbeat
Negative Space
Revolting Rhymes
Alt: Lost Property Office
A lot of pundits are sleeping on Revolting Rhymes, by filmmakers that tend to do well by this category. And a reminder that Pixar doesn’t actually do very well here, so don’t trust anybody suggesting that Lou is more than an average-strength contender. Confidence: Medium
Live-Action Short
The Eleven O’Clock
Icebox
Rise of a Star
The Silent Child
Witnesses
Alt: Facing Mecca
Another category where “important” stands out, but so does “charming”. And so does “famous star”, which is why I’m rolling the dice on the Catherine Deneuve-starring ballet film Rise of a Star, something that I’ve seen absolutely none of the big-name prognosticators cite as a possibility. Confidence: Medium-low