At first I wasn’t going to do this, but I’m ultimately a sucker for the glitziness of Teh Movies. So here are my predictions for the Oscar nominations tomorrow morning. I have decided to eschew all but a little commentary, mostly on the grounds that I haven’t been this bored by the Oscar race in all the years that I’ve been watching the Oscars. Incidentally, the fact that I’m predicting a 5/5/5 match-up between Picture, Director and Editing makes me want to slice my wrists.
(Last year: I went 32/40 on the Big 8, and 63/99 overall)
Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
Alternate: WALL-E
Wishful thinking: Happy-Go-Lucky
Best Director
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant, Milk
Alternate: Darren Aronofsky, The Wrestler
Wishful thinking: Andrew Stanton, WALL-E
Best Actor
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Alternate: Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Wishful thinking: Benicio Del Toro, Che
Eastwood, Jenkins and Pitt are competing for two spots. My rationale: if Eastwood is nominated, he automatically becomes the frontrunner for the win, and there are going to be a lot of people who desperately want to see him win, so…
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
Alternate: Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Wishful thinking: Michelle Williams, Wendy and Lucy
Conventional wisdom says that Angelina Jolie will be in for Changeling. But if she couldn’t get in for A Mighty Heart last year, a somewhat better-liked film in which she gave a superior performance, I don’t see it happening. And if Blanchett (something of a dark horse) could get in for Elizabeth: The Golden Age, she can certainly get in for Benjamin Button. I almost put swapped Leo and Blanchett, but in my heart I know that Leo and Hawkins can’t both get in.
Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire
Alternate: James Franco, Milk
Wishful thinking: Eddie Marsan, Happy-Go-Lucky
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Kate Winslet, The Reader
Alternate: Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Wishful thinking: Hiam Abbass, The Visitor
Best Original Screenplay
Milk, by Dustin Lance Black
Rachel Getting Married, by Jenny Lumet
Vicky Cristina Barcelona, by Woody Allen
The Visitor, by Thomas McCarthy
WALL-E, by Andrew Stanton
Alternate: Happy-Go-Lucky, by Mike Leigh
Wishful thinking: In Bruges, by Martin McDonagh
I don’t buy the recent buzz die-off for Rachel whatsoever. Burn After Reading would be the second alternate.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, by Eric Roth
Doubt, by John Patrick Shanley
Frost/Nixon, by Peter Morgan
The Reader, by David Hare
Slumdog Millionaire, by Simon Beaufoy
Alternate: The Dark Knight, by Jonathan Nolan & Christopher Nolan
Wishful thinking: Let the Right One In, by John Ajvide Lindqvist
Best Animated Feature
Kung Fu Panda
WALL-E
Waltz with Bashir
Alternate: Bolt
Best Foreign Language Film
The Baader Meinhof Complex (Germany)
The Class (France)
Everlasting Moments (Sweden)
The Necessities of Life (Canada)
Waltz with Bashir (Israel)
Alternate: Departures (Japan)
Best Documentary Feature
Blessed Is the Match: The Life and Death of Hannah Seneesh
I.O.U.S.A.
Man on Wire
Standard Operating Procedure
Trouble the Water
Alternate: Encounters at the End of the World
Best Cinematography
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Claudio Miranda)
The Dark Knight (Wally Pfister)
Milk (Harris Savides)
Revolutionary Road (Roger Deakins)
Slumdog Millionaire (Anthony Dod Mantle)
Alternate: The Reader (Chris Menges)
Wishful thinking: Che (Steven Soderbergh)
They have to nominate Savides eventually – he’s a “cinematographer’s cinematographer”. And this is his most Oscar-friendly shot ever. I’m going 4/5 with the ASC, which is historically appropriate
Best Editing
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Kirk Baxter & Angus Wall)
The Dark Knight (Lee Smith)
Frost/Nixon (Daniel P. Hill & Mike Hill)
Milk (Elliot Graham & Gus Van Sant)
Slumdog Millionaire (Chris Dickens)
Alternate: Defiance (Steven Rosenblum)
Wishful thinking: Burn After Reading (Joel & Ethan Coen)
5/5 with the ACE, which I’m not hugely comfortable with, but I can’t think of anything better… the Defiance alternate stems from the lack of obvious other choices, and Rosenblum is a workhorse who’s gone 2/6 for Oscar nominations in his films with Edward Zwick.
Best Art Direction
Changeling (James Murakami)
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Donald Graham Burt)
The Dark Knight (Nathan Crowley)
Milk (Bill Groom)
Slumdog Millionaire (Mark Digby)
Alternate: Frost/Nixon (Michael Corneblith)
Wishful thinking: The Fall (Ged Clarke)
Best Costume Design
Changeling (Deborah Hopper)
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Jacqueline West)
The Dark Knight (Lindy Hemming)
The Duchess (Michael O’Connor)
Revolutionary Road (Albert Wolsky)
Alternate: Australia (Catherine Martin)
Wishful thinking: The Fall (Eiko Ishioka)
I’m assuming a large base of support for The Dark Knight. This is much the least likely of all 12 nominations I’m predicting for that film, but I wasn’t super-confident in any other choice, and it’s such an erratic category to predict.
Best Makeup
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Reader
Alternate: Tropic Thunder
Wishful thinking: Hellboy II: The Golden Army
Best Score
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Alexandre Desplat)
The Dark Knight (James Newton Howard and Hans Zimmer)
Milk (Danny Elfman)
Slumdog Millionaire (A.H. Rahman)
WALL-E (Thomas Newman)
Alternate: Revolutionary Road (Thomas Newman)
Wishful thinking: Synecdoche, New York (Jon Brion)
Best Original Song
From Bolt: “I Thought I Lost You”
From High School Musical 3: Senior Year: “A Night to Remember”
From Slumdog Millionaire: “Jaiho”
From WALL-E: “Down to Earth”
From The Wrestler: “The Wrestler”
Alternate: from My Blueberry Nights: “The Story”
Wishful thinking: the elimination of the category
Best Visual Effects
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Best Sound Mixing
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E
Alternate: Quantum of Solace
Wishful thinking: Rachel Getting Married
Best Sound Editing
The Dark Knight
Defiance
Iron Man
Quantum of Solace
WALL-E
Alternate: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Wishful thinking: Che