The Oscars! I don’t know what to say, really: I’m still, two years later, grousing that Crash beat Brokeback Mountain, and yet I’m here anyway, part of that whole scene. The best I could do was wait until just a couple days before the announcements are made. Because you know what? Just because they reward the easy and mediocre over the daring and wonderful doesn’t mean I don’t love them to pieces.
But I am going to keep my commentary to a minimum. Look around the Oscar blogs; the race seems curiously pre-ordained this year.
(FYI: I got 31/40 on the Big Eight last year).
Best Picture
Into the Wild
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
(Dark horse: Atonement)
Like everyone, I base my guesses off of the craft guilds, and they say to me: No Country is a mortal lock, and Michael Clayton and There Will Be Blood are awfully safe looking. Juno has the all-important Roger Ebert’s #1 precursor as well as a whole lot of goodwill. Leaving my not-very-controversial pick of Into the Wild, an awful film that for some reason the actors guild went apeshit for, and they’re the biggest voting bloc.
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Joel & Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Sean Penn, Into the Wild
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Joe Wright, Atonement
(Dark horse: Tim Burton, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street)
DGA sez: Anderson, the Coens, Penn, Schnabel and Tony Gilroy for Michael Clayton. They never line up 5-for-5, and the obvious choice to cut is the sturdy but non-flashy work Gilroy did in his lawyer procedural. So who to replace him with? A long-unsung vet (Burton, Sidney Lumet), or an upstart (Wright)? I’m assuming that lingering affection for Atonement‘s epicness – and a fear of making things too nihilistic – will work out well for Wright.
The non-short film categories after the jump.
Best Actor
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild
Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises
(Dark horse: Frank Langella, Starting Out in the Evening)
This is what I like to call “received wisdom.” Everyone on the internets is saying some combination of these five + Ryan Gosling, who I think is too young for a second nomination in two years. Langella is there as my “dude i m so teh brave” half-pick.
Best Actress
Julie Christie, Away from Her
Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart
Laura Linney, The Savages
Ellen Page, Juno
(Dark horse: Keira Knightley, Atonement)
Same thing about received wisdom, except for my excision of Cate Blanchett in Elizabeth: The Golden Age, which is apparently still getting buzz despite the fact that everybody hated it. I think that’s enough to keep her out; Linney over Knightley is both for the actresses’ histories and screentime.
Best Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson’s War
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
(Dark horse: Max von Sydow, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly)
For such a sprawling category, this is incredibly well locked-up. Von Sydow has no chance; my format required a dark horse, and he is ultimately the sixth most likely, for all the good it does him. Too bad Affleck couldn’t campaign in his actual category of Lead Actor.
Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There
Ruby Dee, American Gangster
Catherine Keener, Into the Wild
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
(Dark horse: Saoirse Ronan, Atonement)
If Atonement love happens, Ronan over Dee. The other four are pretty much safe.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Charlie Wilson’s War, by Aaron Sorkin
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, by Ronald Harwood
Into the Wild, by Sean Penn
No Country for Old Men, by Joel & Ethan Coen
There Will Be Blood, by Paul Thomas Anderson
(Dark horse: Atonement, by Christopher Hampton)
The WGA – who has more interesting things going on right now than Oscar precursing – and for the record, I have supported the strike with my whole body and soul ever since it began, but it seemed presumptuous to make a big deal of it – has Zodiac in for Charlie Wilson’s War. Which I’d prefer, but they’re never 5/5, so let’s assume, without much cause, that Sorkin’s star power will outweigh Atonement literacy.
Best Original Screenplay
Juno, by Diablo Cody
Lars and the Real Girl, by Nancy Oliver
Michael Clayton, by Tony Gilroy
Ratatouille, by Brad Bird
The Savages, by Tamara Jenkins
(Dark horse: Knocked Up, by Judd Apatow)
Animation isn’t eligible under WGA rules, and Ratatouille is getting in, end of story. Knocked Up is the least Oscar-friendly of the Guild’s set of five, especially with Juno taking up the “indie/quirky” AND the “unwanted pregnancy” slots.
Best Foreign Language Film
The Counterfeiters (Austria)
Days of Darkness (Canada)
Katyn (Poland)
The Unknown (Italy)
The Year My Parents Went on Vacation (Brazil)
The 9 film shortlist messed me up bad: I had Persepolis, The Orphanage and 4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days in my top 5. The logic goes: Austria’s film is about WWII; Brazil’s is warm and fuzzy; Canada’s and Poland’s are by the most famous directors (Denys Arcand and Andrzej Wajda), and Italy’s, alone among the nine, is supposed to be actually good.
Best Animated Feature
Persepolis
Ratatouille
The Simpsons Movie
As usual, the easiest category to predict. I mean, what, Beowulf or something?
Best Documentary Feature
Autism: The Musical
Lake of Fire
No End in Sight
Sicko
War/Dance
NOT THAT IT MATTERS AFTER THAT CRAP SHORTLIST, ASSHOLES.
Best Cinematography
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (Roger Deakins)
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Janusz Kaminski)
Into the Wild (Eric Gautier)
No Country for Old Men (Roger Deakins)
There Will Be Blood (Robert Elswit)
(Dark horse: Atonement, Seamus McGarvey)
I actually think the weakest film here is also the best: Deakins for No Country (if they resist giving him two nominations, it’s the less conventionally pretty of the two). The ASC – which is usually 4/5 – forgot to include that Oscar-favored “pretty landscapes” movie (the Westerns, this year, don’t count), and if you haven’t noticed yet, I don’t think the Academy will like Atonement very much.
Best Editing
Into the Wild (Jay Cassidy)
Michael Clayton (John Gilroy)
No Country for Old Men (Joel & Ethan Coen)
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street (Chris Lebenzon)
There Will Be Blood (Dylan Tichenor)
4/5 with Best Picture, + a musical. There’s no telling with this category, which typically has the least to do with its nominal craft.
Best Art Direction
Atonement
Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
There Will Be Blood
I think this is pretty much as safe as houses, this list. Makes me wonder what exciting surprise I forgot.
Best Costume Design
Atonement
Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Hairspray
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
There Will Be Blood
Ditto.
Best Makeup
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
La Vie en Rose
From the shortlist, I can’t conceive of what else might get in. Norbit is not getting an Oscar nomination, and that’s that.
Best Score
Atonement (Dario Marianelli)
The Kite Runner (Alberto Iglesias)
Lust, Caution (Alexandre Desplat)
Ratatouille (Michael Giacchino)
There Will Be Blood (Jonny Greenwood)
Crapshoot, although I think Marianelli and Greenwood are a lot safer than the others. Desplat is close to a superstar in this category, Iglesias did the sort of work that typically gets noticed, and Giacchino had the best work of the year, in my unhumble opinion.
Best Song
From American Gangster, “Do You Feel Me”
From Enchanted, “That’s How You Know”
From Hairspray, “Come So Far (Got So Far to Go)”
From Into the Wild, “Guaranteed”
From Once, “Falling Slowly”
The last two are the locks. “That’s How You Know” and “Come So Far” benefit from being featured in a major way in their films’ plots, and I frankly picked the American Gangster song because other people were picking it.
Best Sound Mixing
300
Into the Wild
No Country for Old Men
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Transformers
The sound-mixing guild (yes, there is one) decreed all but Sweeney Todd, giving its slot to The Bourne Ultimatum. I would personally have never expected 300 or Into the Wild, but I’ll punt on this issue & defer to their guildiness. Meanwhile, I can’t imagine a musical failing to get in, and while Hairspray had, I think, better mixing than Sweeney Todd, it has gotten a colder shoulder throughout awards season.
Best Sound Effects Editing
300
Beowulf
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End
Spider-Man 3
Transformers
Since even the sound editors don’t seem to know what this category means, here are the rules that have cropped up:
-Loud films
-Space films
There were no space films, but Transformers was certainly sci-fi, and very loud too (it’s eventually going to win, whatever else is nominated). I’m going to be dull as I can be and predict a chunk of sword-clanging movies, and wrap up with Spider-Man 3, because it is 2007’s top-grossing film, and it’s not getting in anywhere else.
Best Visual Effects
I Am Legend
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End
Transformers
Most people are discounting the possibility of I Am Legend getting in, I think because the infected looked awful; but forget not, the ruins of New York were nearly perfect, and they appeared a lot more often. Spider-Man 3 missing out on the shortlist weirded things something awful.
When, oh when, is this category going to retire?