Updated: my extremely tenuous Cinematography picks.
I’m not sure if I ever really trusted the Oscars to give the award to the actual most deserving films. Certainly, it’s been many years since I thought that “Best Picture” meant anything – hell, it’s usually not awarded to the best nominee, let alone the best film of any given year. But I think that we can all agree that after the hideous debacle that was the Crash win last year, the Oscars are officially to film criticism as an obese British man shitting in a punch bowl is to comedy: suitable only for unpromising adolescents and the mentally ill.
So why do I care? Well, because it’s what I do. For good or bad or really bad or horribly bad or so fucking bad you can’t stand it, the Academy Awards are a huge part of American film culture, and American film culture is the very foundation of my existence as a person. Besides, I’m really good at it.
Anyway, the nominations are announced on Tuesday the 23rd, so with just over a week to go, here are my oh-so-educated guesses. I can’t make it clear enough, these are not even close to what I think actually deserves anything.
Best Picture
Babel
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen
(Dark horse: Letters from Iwo Jima)
When one wishes to predict the Oscar nominees, one always begins with the Guilds: the DGA, the SAG, the WGA and the PGA. And those august societies make it clear that the frontrunners right now are Babel, The Departed and The Queen. Dreamgirls less so, not to mention that very few people seem to love it, but we all know that it’s an Oscar Movie if ever there was one. Leaving one slot, and three possibilities to fill it: the guild-friendly Little Miss Sunshine and two major success with the critics, Letters from Iwo Jima and United 93. Quality* be damned, I’m seeing fit to run with the guilds.
(*I wrote that before I actually saw United 93, and was therefore unaware that “quality” and “United 93” should not be used in the same thought, unless that thought is, “Watching United 93 has reduced the quality of my life.”)
Best Director
Bill Condon, Dreamgirls
Clint Eastwood, Letters from Iwo Jima
Stephen Frears, The Queen
Alejandro González Iñárritu, Babel
Martin Scorsese, The Departed
(Dark horse: Paul Greengrass, United 93)
The DGA is usually 5-for-5 here, but I can’t imagine a team getting in for the Oscar, if such a thing is even possible under the rules, and that takes out Jonathan Dayton & Valerie Faris for Little Miss Sunshine. Besides, a perfect match-up between Picture and Director is both rare and boring. Recently, the Academy has loved them some Clint, so I’ll toss it that way, but Greengrass has received significant critical attention this year. (Alfonso Cuarón and Guillermo del Toro are distant, wistful longshots, and it makes me weep bitter tears of acid-laced pain to confront that fact).
Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Departed
Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson
Peter O’Toole, Venus
Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness
Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland
(Dark horse: Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat: etc.)
Pretty much received wisdom here: O’Toole and Whitaker have swept the critics’ awards; SAG and the Golden Globes predict such-and-such. Two weak spots: DiCaprio could get screwed in the old game of category confusion, and might even lost his slot to himself in Blood Diamond. Gosling is in a tiny indie and could well miss out, probably to Cohen’s presumptive Globe-winning role; but the Academy hates giving nominations to comic performances.
Best Actress
Penélope Cruz, Volver
Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal
Helen Mirren, The Queen
Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet, Little Children
You will notice no dark horse. This is because there is no dark horse. This category is locked; every organisation in North America that nominates actors in groups of five has chosen this exact set.
Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children
Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
Jack Nicholson, The Departed
Michael Sheen, The Queen
(Dark horse: many)
The most open category in years. Haley and Murphy are pretty solid on the precursors, and the only major thing Nicholson missed out on was the SAG; but that’s really major for this race. Mark Wahlberg (The Departed), Djimon Honsou (Blood Diamond), Brad Pitt (Babel) and Ben Affleck (Hollywoodland) – hell, and DiCaprio (The Departed) – are all in the running, so here’s what my final logic looked like: Murphy is safe, Haley is the comeback kid – Oscar loves a comeback – Jack is Jack, and the Academy worships Jack, Arkin is the ol’ warhorse who’s never won, and Sheen is the customary “riding along with a co-star who, even at this stage, is clearly going to win in Lead” (think Catherine Keener and Philip Seymour Hoffman in Capote). If I have to pick a dark horse, it’s Wahlberg in for Sheen.
Best Supporting Actress
Adriana Barazza, Babel
Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal
Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Kikuchi Rinko, Babel
(Dark horse: Catherine O’Hara, For Your Consideration)
Again, this is just common sense (and exactly the same as the SAG nominees). The only question, really, is whether or not this is a year the Academy will feel generous towards a young person. If not, O’Hara it is, and hooray for post-modernism.
Worth noting: if it’s any combination of these six women, this is the only category that I’m at all happy about in the Big Eight.
Best Original Screenplay
Babel, by Guillermo Arriaga
Little Miss Sunshine, by Michael Arndt
The Queen, by Peter Morgan
United 93, by Paul Greengrass
Volver, by Pedro Almodóvar
(Dark horse: Letters from Iwo Jima, by Iris Yamashita)
The first three are pretty well locked, and I can’t bring myself to go with only three WGA nominees, leaving me to predict a Clash of the Critical Titans yet again between Letters and United 93 (the latter has a WGA nod). This category is historically kind to Almodóvar, and I’m naïve enough to believe that the Academy will manage to see right through Stranger Than Fiction.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Departed, by William Monaham
The Devil Wears Prada, by Aline Brosh McKenna
Little Children, by Todd Field and Tom Perotta
Notes on a Scandal, by Patrick Marber
Thank You For Smoking, by Jason Reitman
(Dark horse: Children of Men, by several people)
WGA or no WGA, Borat is not getting a nomination here. Leaving space for the Golden Globe nominee Notes, by the well-regarded Patrick Marber. I’d never have guessed Prada even three weeks ago, but it’s getting every precursor nomination out there (of which, honestly, there aren’t that many for writing). The Children of Men bit is more because I’d like to think that I can make it so by wanting it very much; this is a pretty locked-up category.
Best Animated Feature
Cars
Happy Feet
Monster House
Because I can, and it’s real easy this year.
Best Cinematography
Michael Ballhaus, The Departed
Emmanuel Lubezki, Children of Men
Rodrigo Prieto, Babel
Robert Richardson, The Good Shepherd
Dean Semler, Apocalypto
(Dark horse: Vilmos Zsigmond, The Black Dahlia)
I was a lot more comfortable with this category before the ASC nominations, but there was not a single Best Picture contender in the lot, and that confused me badly, even though the five films were all really well-shot. Silly ASC, rewarding quality. My logic here couldn’t have been more brutal: take the two biggest names from the BP candidates, use them in place of the two least Oscar-friendly ASC films, and make one of those the dark horse. Let us not forget that neither Prieto nor Ballhaus has ever won before.